Perhaps the Biggest Political Lie: The Number Of Illegal Aliens in America...?

THE BIGGEST POLITICAL LIE: THE NUMBER OF ILLEGAL ALIENS IN AMERICA There is no doubt in my mind that the “caravan” of potential illegal aliens is nothing less than an expeditionary invasion of America’s sovereignty. Should these so-called migrants arrive in the border area, there is likewise, little or no doubt that they will be admitted to the United States – having been coached on what to say to obtain asylum in America. With the number of illegal aliens coming over the border year after year, it is a bald-faced political lie that the illegal alien population in America has been steady at 11-12 million for the past decade… While nobody knows the real numbers, and the government refuses to publicly track the numbers, researchers at the Yale University School of Management, professors Jonathan S. Feinstein and Edward H. Kaplan and postdoctoral associate Mohammad Fazel-Zarandi, have attempted to quantify the number of illegal aliens in the United States. Published on September 21, 2018, the study titled, “The Number of Undocumented Immigrants in the United States: Estimates Based on Demographic Modeling with Data from 1990 to 2016,” the study concludes: “Our results lead us to the conclusion that the widely accepted estimate of 11.3 million undocumented immigrants in the United States is too small. Our model estimates indicate that the true number is likely to be larger, with an estimated ninety-five percent probability interval ranging from 16.2 to 29.5 million undocumented immigrants.” The study, unlike many of the studies related to global climate change, makes its data publicly available for replication or falsification by any qualified researcher… The Number of Undocumented Immigrants in the United States: Estimates Based on Demographic Modeling with Data from 1990 to 2016 Abstract We apply standard demographic principles of inflows and outflows to estimate the number of undocumented immigrants in the United States, using the best available data, including some that have only recently become available. Our analysis covers the years 1990 to 2016. We develop an estimate of the number of undocumented immigrants based on parameter values that tend to underestimate undocumented immigrant inflows and overstate outflows; we also show the probability distribution for the number of undocumented immigrants based on simulating our model over parameter value ranges. Our conservative estimate is 16.7 million for 2016, nearly fifty percent higher than the most prominent current estimate of 11.3 million, which is based on survey data and thus different sources and methods. The mean estimate based on our simulation analysis is 22.1 million, essentially double the current widely accepted estimate. Our model predicts a similar trajectory of growth in the number of undocumented immigrants over the years of our analysis, but at a higher level. While our analysis delivers different results, we note that it is based on many assumptions. The most critical of these concern border apprehension rates and voluntary emigration rates of undocumented immigrants in the U.S. These rates are uncertain, especially in the 1990’s and early 2000’s, which is when—both based on our modeling and the very different survey data approach—the number of undocumented immigrants increases most significantly. Our results, while based on a number of assumptions and uncertainties, could help frame debates about policies whose consequences depend on the number of undocumented immigrants in the United States. Supporting material. Contains the mathematical model, parameter values, and data sources underlying the model. S1 File. Supporting material. Contains the mathematical model, parameter values, and data sources underlying the model. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0201193.s001 S2 File. Excel file. The spreadsheet used to calculate the conservative estimate. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0201193.s002 Bottom line… One party looks at these “migrants” as a way to further their revolution, destroying America from within by compromising our traditional institutions and placing unsustainable pressure on our social safety networks. While the number of individuals does not look like a large number when compared with those already here, it could just be the straw that broke the camel’s back – or as the climate researchers are wont to say, the tipping point that turns into a national catastrophe. And, the other party looks at these “migrants” as a cheap source of labor. We are screwed no matter which party wins. At least, with President Trump, we have a fighting chance to stem the invasion – possibly even legislating a respite to allow those already here to self-identify and assimilate. It is time to vote. The choices are clear. Nation-destroying progressive socialist democrats or holding the line with Republicans. sanity -- steve