Thursday, October 16, 2014

Oil Prices Continue to Define Geopolitics

Editor's Note: Oil prices dropped steeply Oct. 14, with crude oil futures falling 4.6 percent to $81.84 per barrel -- the biggest decrease in more than two years. Brent crude dropped by more than $4 a barrel at one stage in the day, dipping below $85 for the first time since 2010. While these are relatively substantial drops, they are just one part of a continuing trend Stratfor has been tracking over the past few months. Factors behind the slump include weak demand, a surfeit of supply and the fact that many large Middle Eastern producers are reluctant to reduce their output.

In light of these developments, we are republishing the following diary from Oct. 2, which details the reasons behind the falling prices and how the drops could affect oil-dependent countries around the world.

The global oil benchmark, Brent crude, fell Oct. 2 to about $92 per barrel before rebounding to finish the day at around $94 per barrel, the lowest price since mid-2012. The latest sell-off follows one of the sharpest declines in a quarter in recent years, in which the price of oil slid about 16 percent. It may be premature to forecast sustained international oil prices lower than $90 per barrel, but if the price of oil remains close to where it is now, many oil exporting countries will feel the pain after basing their budgets on previous price expectations.

Simply put, the oil market has gotten overstocked. After spending much of the year producing only around 200,000 barrels per day, Libya has seen its production jump up by about 700,000 bpd since mid-June. The United States has continued its relentless expansion of oil production, with the latest Energy Information Agency figures estimating that U.S. production has increased by about 300,000 bpd since the beginning of August, and Iraq has experienced similar gains. Russia, Angola and Nigeria have also seen marked boosts in production. While most of the recent production increases are one-offs, North America could add another 1 million to 1.5 million barrels of production by the end of next year.

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Wednesday, October 15, 2014

Mexico A.G.: Bodies from Iguala graves are not missing students...

Borderland Beat

Mexico A.G.: Bodies from Iguala graves are not missing students

Posted: 14 Oct 2014 07:25 PM PDT

Chivis Martinez for Borderland Beat

As I reported over the weekend, Guerrero's governor Aguirre began making statements that some of the tested remains, presumably those of missing normalistas, were not matching relatives.

Aguirre went so far as to state, "I think some of the students may be alive." This was several days before the "DNA testing" results were in.

Today the Attorney General of the Republic, Jesús Murillo Karam, said 28 bodies exhumed from initial mass graves in Iguala, Guerrero, are not the missing normalistas, this was determined by DNA tests.

"I can say that we already have results from the first graves found, I can tell you that they do not match the DNA of the families of these young people.."

The AG did not say which agency conducted the testing, or if federal testing was in tandem with the state. This usually occurs in controversial cases. The remains of kidnapped and murdered American, Harry Devert were tested both by Guerrero and federal agencies.

Also not addressed was the fact that, supposedly, it was detainees that gave information of the locale where the missing normalistas were buried.

Guerreros Unidos Leader Commits Suicide in Clash Avoiding Arrest in Normalistas Case

Posted: 14 Oct 2014 05:17 PM PDT

Juitepec, Morelos: Benjamin Mondragón Peredo , 'El Benjamon' leader of Guerreros Unidos who died this morning during a confrontation with the federal police, actually committed suicide with a self inflicted bullet to the head, in a final act to avoid arrest. .

The leader was a suspect in the missing normalistas case, detainees had given testimony that El Benjamon ordered the students kidnapped and killed.

The detainees also said the location of the students was given by Public Safety Director of Iguala, Francisco Salgado Valladaresto to Mondragon.

Junitepec is adjacent to the city of Cuernavaca in the state of Morelos. Morelos is a state neighboring Guerrero.