Friday, February 12, 2016

The International Syria Support Group (ISSG) - a group of world powers that includes the U.S., Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey - reached an agreement to implement a nationwide "cessation of hostilities" in Syria...

Besieged and Hard-to-Reach Regions 
Syria: February 12, 2016

By Christopher Kozak

The International Syria Support Group (ISSG) - a group of world powers that includes the U.S., Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey - reached an agreement to implement a nationwide "cessation of hostilities" in Syria during their most recent meeting in Munich, Germany on February 11, 2016. The "cessation of hostilities" will face significant hurdles, including the lack of a clear enforcement mechanism and the prospect of continued attacks by ISIS, Jabhat al-Nusra (JN), and other irreconcilable groups. The ISSG also agreed to secure immediate humanitarian access to six besieged locations in accordance with UN Security Council Resolution 2254. The demands for renewed deliveries of humanitarian supplies nonetheless include only a fraction of the civilian populations across Syria in need of assistance. This map overlays current zones of control in Syria with publicly-available data on besieged and hard-to-reach populations as released by the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA).   
   
 
ISW will continue updating on the situation at www.understandingwar.org 
as well as on our Twitter handle @TheStudyofWar

Senator Maria Cantwell. Today, as I approach my 79th birthday, I am heart-broken when I look at my country and my government. I shall only point out a very few things abysmally wrong which you can multiply by a thousand fold...

Senator Maria Cantwell
Washington, DC , 20510
 
Dear Senators:
 
I have tried to live by the rules my entire life. My father was a Command Sergeant Major, U.S. Army, who died of combat related stresses shortly
after his retirement. It was he who instilled in me those virtues he felt important - honesty, duty, patriotism and obeying the laws of God and of our
various governments. I have served my country, paid my taxes, worked hard,volunteered and donated my fair share of money, time and artifacts.
 
Today, as I approach my 79th birthday, I am heart-broken when I look at my country and my government. I shall only point out a very few things
abysmally wrong which you can multiply by a thousand fold. I have calculated that all the money I have paid in income taxes my entire life cannot even keep the Senate barbershop open for one year! Only Heaven and a few tight-lipped actuarial types know what the Senate dining room costs the taxpayers.
So please, enjoy your haircuts and meals on us.
 
Last year, the president spent an estimated $1.4 billion on himself and his family. The vice president spends $ millions on hotels. They have had 8
vacations so far this year! And our House of Representatives and Senate
have become America's answer to the Saudi royal family. You have become the "perfumed princes and princesses" of our country.
 
In the middle of the night, you voted in the Affordable Health Care Act, a.k.a. "Obamacare," a bill which no more than a handful of senators or representatives read more than several paragraphs, crammed it down our throats, and then promptly exempted yourselves from it substituting your own taxpayer-subsidized golden health care insurance.
 
You live exceedingly well, eat and drink as well as the "one percenters," consistently vote yourselves perks and pay raises while making 3.5 times the average U.S. individual income, and give up nothing while you (as well as the president and veep) ask us to sacrifice due to sequestration (for which, of course, you plan to blame the Republicans, anyway).
 
You understand very well the only two rules you need to know - (1) How to get elected, and (2) How to get re-elected. And you do this with the aid of an eagerly willing and partisan press, speeches permeated with a certain economy of truth, and by buying the votes of the greedy, the ill-informed and under-educated citizens (and non-citizens, too, many of whom do vote ) who are looking for a handout rather than a job. Your so-called "safety net" has become a hammock for the lazy. And, what is it now, about 49 or 50 million on food stamps - pretty much all Democrat voters - and the program is absolutely rife with fraud and absolutely no congressional oversight?
 
I would offer that you are not entirely to blame. What changed you is the seductive environment of power in which you have immersed yourselves. It is the nature of both houses of Congress which requires you to subordinate your virtue in order to get anything done until you have achieved a leadership role. To paraphrase President Reagan, it appears that the second oldest profession (politics), bears a remarkably strong resemblance to the oldest.
 
As the hirsute first Baron John Emerich Edward Dalberg Acton (1834 - 1902), English historian and moralist, so aptly and accurately stated, "Power
tends to corrupt, and absolute power corrupts absolutely. Great men are almost always bad men." I'm only guessing that this applies to the female sex
as well. Tell me, is there a more corrupt entity in this country than Congress?
 
While we middle class people continue to struggle, our government becomes less and less transparent, more and more bureaucratic, and ever so much more dictatorial, using Czars and Secretaries to tell us (just to mention a very few) what kind of light bulbs we must purchase, how much soda or hamburgers we can eat, what cars we can drive, gasoline to use, and what health care we must buy. Countless thousands of pages of regulations strangle our businesses costing the consumer more and more every day.
 
As I face my final year, or so, with cancer, my president and my government tell me "You'll just have to take a pill," while you, Senator, your colleagues, the president, and other exulted government officials and their families will get the best possible health care on our tax dollars until you are called home by your Creator while also enjoying a retirement beyond my
wildest dreams, which of course, you voted for yourselves and we pay for.
 
The chances of you reading this letter are practically zero as your staff will not pass it on, but with a little luck, a form letter response might be generated by them with an auto signature applied, hoping we will believe that you, our senator or representative, has heard us and actually cares. This letter will, however, go on line where many others will have the chance to read one person's opinion, rightly or wrongly, about this government, its administration and its senators and representatives.
 
I only hope that occasionally you might quietly thank the taxpayer for all the generous entitlements which you have voted yourselves, for which, by law, we must pay, unless, of course, it just goes on the $17 trillion national debt for which your children and ours, and your grandchildren and ours, ad infinitum, must eventually try to pick up the tab.
 
My final thoughts are that it must take a person who has either lost his or her soul, or conscience, or both, to seek re-election and continue to destroy the country that I deeply love.  You have put it so far in debt that we will never pay it off while your lot improves by the minute, because of your power.
 
For you, Senator, will never stand up to the rascals in your House who constantly deceive the American people. And that, my dear Senator, is how power has corrupted you and the entire Congress. The only answer to clean up this cesspool is term limits. This, of course, will kill the goose that lays your golden eggs. And woe be to him (or her) who would dare to bring it up.
 
Sincerely,
 





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Analysis: It’s ‘game over’ for global warming activists after Supreme Court EPA ruling Arctic Sea Ice Trend May Have Turned The Corner As Ice Volume Picks Up Over Past 5 Years NASA Study Concludes ‘Global Warming’ Is Actually Slowing Sea Level Rise...

Analysis: It’s ‘game over’ for global warming activists after Supreme Court EPA ruling


Analysis: It’s ‘game over’ for global warming activists after Supreme Court EPA ruling

Posted: 12 Feb 2016 11:16 AM PST

Environmentalists’ faint hope that they can get international action on climate change gets fainter by the day. This week the United States Supreme Court added to their despair by kiboshing President Obama’s pledge, at December’s climate talks in Paris, to lead the world on climate change. “This could be the proverbial string which causes Paris [...]

Arctic Sea Ice Trend May Have Turned The Corner As Ice Volume Picks Up Over Past 5 Years

Posted: 12 Feb 2016 11:12 AM PST

The Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) here shows currently Arctic sea ice is at its highest level in years for this time of the year. Hat-tip: Kirye at Twitter. Sea ice extent in recent years (in million km2) for the northern hemisphere, as a function of date. In fact it appears it has reached its highest [...]

NASA Study Concludes ‘Global Warming’ Is Actually Slowing Sea Level Rise

Posted: 12 Feb 2016 11:08 AM PST

A new NASA study concludes global warming increases the amount of water stored underground which, in turn, slows the rate of sea level rise. At a time when scientists are worried about accelerating sea level rise, NASA scientist John Reager and his colleagues found an extra 3,200 gigatons of water was being stored by parched landscapes [...]

Oops: Obama administration repeatedly told UN EPA ‘climate regs’ were ‘legally bulletproof’

Posted: 12 Feb 2016 11:07 AM PST

The big climate news of the week is, of course, that the U.S. Supreme Court put a stay on the EPA’s Clean Power Plan until the Plan’s detractors have their day in court. Cato’s Ilya Shapiro summarized the situation succinctly: The Supreme Court’s stay of the Clean Power Plan is a welcome development. The regulations [...]

Al Gore’s global warming doomsday passes uneventfully

Posted: 12 Feb 2016 09:34 AM PST

By ED BERRY | 0 comments Here we are on Jan. 26, 2016. Do you feel the heat? Do you see the clouds are gone and the sky is glowing red? Ten years ago, on Jan. 25, 2006, Al Gore stood before his Sundance audience at the screening of his “An Inconvenient Truth.” Gore waved his [...]

Flashback 1987: ‘Global Warming’ Causes Sea Levels to Fall — 2016: ‘Global Warming’ Causes Slowdown In Sea Level Rise

Posted: 12 Feb 2016 07:20 AM PST

Settled Science: Global warming causes sea levels to rise — oops — fall, er slowdown?  Whatever! 2016 Claim: Wait! What?! Study: There is so much global warming that it is slowing the rise of sea levels – ‘Is there anything global warming can’t do? Now it seems that there is so much global warming that it is slowing the [...]

Flashback: Prominent Dutch Scientist: ‘I find the Doomsday picture Al Gore is painting – a 6m sea level rise, 15 times IPCC number — entirely without merit’

Posted: 12 Feb 2016 07:13 AM PST

2015 Claim: Wait! What?! Study: There is so much global warming that it is slowing the rise of sea levels – ‘Is there anything global warming can’t do? Now it seems that there is so much global warming that it is slowing the rise of sea levels.’ Climate Astrology: ‘Global Warming’ commands sea level rise Increases…& sea level [...]

Climate Astrology: ‘Global Warming’ commands sea level rise Increases…& sea level rise slowdown: NASA discovers that ‘global warming’ is slowing and not increasing sea level rise

Posted: 12 Feb 2016 06:33 AM PST

One of the effects of climate change, also known as global warming, has said to have been the rise in sea levels. The idea is that as the Earth’s temperatures began to increase the Arctic and Antarctic ice caps would melt, causing the oceans to rise. Unless something was done, cities like Miami and New [...]

EPA chief urges states to defy Supreme Court on climate rules

Posted: 12 Feb 2016 06:16 AM PST

Wait! What?! Study: There is so much global warming that it is slowing the rise of sea levels

Posted: 12 Feb 2016 06:07 AM PST

The outrage! One third of US teachers bring ‘climate denial’ to the classroom

Posted: 12 Feb 2016 06:00 AM PST

Watch Tinfoil: Sen Whitehouse calls climate ‘denial’ is biggest ‘scam’ since Teapot Dome, Watergate

Posted: 11 Feb 2016 07:48 PM PST

Tinfoil: Sen Whitehouse says climate ‘denial’ is biggest ‘scam’ since Teapot Dome, Watergate Speaking on the Senate floor, democrat Senator Sheldon Whitehouse says the climate denial apparatus ‘could be the biggest scam since Tea Pot Dome and Watergate.’ Senator Whitehouse: “Bottom line, if your faith in climate science is undermined, you’ve been had by a [...]

Study: Parched Earth soaks up water, slowing sea level rise

Posted: 11 Feb 2016 07:37 PM PST

http://news.yahoo.com/parched-earth-soaks-water-slowing-sea-level-rise-231245199.html Miami (AFP) – As glaciers melt due to climate change, the increasingly hot and parched Earth is absorbing some of that water inland, slowing sea level rise, NASA experts said Thursday. Satellite measurements over the past decade show for the first time that the Earth’s continents have soaked up and stored an extra 3.2 [...]

Bipartisan panel of politicos: Climate skepticism does not harm Republicans in general election

Posted: 11 Feb 2016 01:15 PM PST

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/02/insiders-keystone-climate-science-republicans-219102 Republicans, meanwhile, don’t believe that their candidates — the majority of whom don’t believe human activity is altering the climate — are jeopardizing their electability in the general by opposing changing public policy to address the perceived threats of climate change. More than 90 percent of Republicans — surveyed last month prior to the [...]

The Syrian ceasefire agreement of February 11 is a big win for the Russians and the Syrian regime...

The Syrian Ceasefire is a Big Win for Russia, Assad, and Iran
By Kimberly and Fred Kagan

The Syrian ceasefire agreement of February 11 is a big win for the Russians and the Syrian regime.  Russia, Iran, and Syria are in the midst of a major military offensive that has allowed them to besiege Aleppo and has them poised to make gains across the battlefield. This so-called "cessation of hostilities" agreement allows them to consolidate and prepare for further advances while preventing the opposition that the U.S. ostensibly supports from attempting to undo any of their gains. It does not require the Assad coalition to allow humanitarian access to the hundreds of thousands they have just trapped in and around Aleppo itself, and it leaves them fully in control of what humanitarian aid goes to the other areas they themselves are besieging and deliberately starving. It was concluded without the participation of the opposition, and is thus an imposition of a truce on the fighters the U.S. is theoretically supporting at a moment when they have lost vital ground.
 
The Russians, moreover, define all of the opposition groups in northern Syria as either ISIS or Jabhat al Nusra.  Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said today, "if liberation of the city that has been taken by illegal armed groups can be qualified as aggression, then, well, yeah, probably. But to attack those who have taken your land is necessary - is a necessary thing. First of all, this has been done by Jabhat al-Nusra, and also the western suburbs of Aleppo are still being controlled together with Jabhat al-Nusra by Jaysh al-Islam and Ahrar al-Sham."  The Russians will read this agreement to let them continue operations against all opposition groups in Aleppo and to continue their encirclement, siege, and targeting of that city.  They will therefore continue to weaken the non-Jabhat al Nusra, non-ISIS opposition now concentrated in Aleppo and likely strengthen the hands of the terrorist organizations they purport to be attacking.
 
This "cessation of hostilities" also continues the policy of requiring the opposition to make concessions in order to get the regime temporarily to stop committing what the UN has called crimes against humanity.
 
This agreement is a ceasefire in the manner of the Minsk agreements that have shaped the supposed ceasefires in Ukraine--ceasefires that have been nominally in effect throughout all of the major Russian and separatist military offensives since February 2015. The Russians posed as a neutral third party when in fact they are a belligerent in the conflict, and have continued to escalate and de-escalate military operations in Ukraine in order to extract concessions from the Ukrainian government.  Not only will this Syrian "cessation of hostilities" also fail, but it will fail in a way that further alienates the non-ISIS, non-al Qaeda Sunni opposition groups and populations on which any meaningful political settlement of the conflict in accord with America's vital national security interests must rely.
 

Germany's Migrant Crisis: January 2016 "Migrants Have No Respect for our Constitutional Order" by Soeren Kern • February 12, 2016 at 5:00 am ...

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Germany's Migrant Crisis: January 2016
"Migrants Have No Respect for our Constitutional Order"

by Soeren Kern  •  February 12, 2016 at 5:00 am

  • Despite snow, ice and freezing temperatures across much of Europe, a total of 91,671 migrants entered Germany during January 2016.

  • German taxpayers could end up paying 450 billion euros ($500 billion) for the upkeep of the million migrants who arrived in Germany in 2015. This would presumably double to nearly one trillion euros if another million migrants arrive in 2016.

  • A 19-year-old migrant from Afghanistan sexually assaulted four girls between the ages of 11 and 13 at a swimming pool in Dresden. The migrant was arrested but then set free.

  • Three teenage migrants from North Africa tried to stone to death two transsexuals in Dortmund after they were seen walking around in women's clothing. The victims were saved by police.

  • Bild reported that politicians in Kiel had ordered the police to overlook crimes perpetrated by migrants.

  • "The topics we cover are determined by the government. ... We must report in such a way that serves Europe and the common good, as it pleases Mrs. Merkel. ... today we are not allowed to say anything negative about the refugees. This is government journalism." – Wolfgang Herles, retired public media personality.

  • The European Commission called for the "rejection of false associations between certain criminal acts, such as the attacks on women in Cologne on New Year's Eve, and the mass influx of refugees."

In January, there were thousands of cases of migrants sexually assaulting women in Germany, including many that took place in public pools. The government began to face a rising voter backlash to the open-door migration policy, including public protests (left). In some areas, authorities have distributed cartoon guides, to "educate" migrants that sexual assault is not acceptable (right).

In January 2016, the German public appeared finally to wake up to the implications of their government's decision to allow 1.1 million — mostly male — migrants from Africa, Asia and the Middle East to enter the country during 2015.

After more than a thousand Muslim migrants sexually assaulted hundreds of women in cities across Germany on New Year's Eve, Chancellor Angela Merkel began to face a rising voter backlash to her open-door migration policy.

Merkel's government has responded to the criticism by: 1) attempting to silence critics of the open-door migration policy; 2) trying to "export" the migrant problem to other countries in the European Union; and 3) announcing a series of measures — branded as unrealistic by critics — to deport migrants accused of committing crimes in Germany.

Continue Reading Article

The U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency Chief, Vincent Stewart, noted that a Mosul operation was unlikely to occur in 2016, underscoring that the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) have far to go before being ready to recapture the city...

Iraq Situation Report: 
February 2 - 11, 2016
By Patrick Martin and ISW Iraq Team

Key Take-Away: The U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency Chief, Vincent Stewart, noted that a Mosul operation was unlikely to occur in 2016, underscoring that the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) have far to go before being ready to recapture the city. Coalition airstrikes have been successful in assisting the ISF recapture territory from ISIS, who were largely pushed out of Ramadi's eastern suburbs on February 9. Coalition-trained forces also opened a new front against ISIS south of Mosul. Members of the Coalition-trained 91st Iraqi Army (IA) Brigade, along with tribal fighters from Ninewa and Peshmerga forces, conducted operations southwest of Makhmur district towards Qayarrah to recapture villages from ISIS. The limited operation marks the first real operation under Ninewa Operations Command, the branch of the Defense Ministry responsible for recapturing Ninewa from ISIS. Additional Coalition-trained forces from the 15th and 16th IA Divisions are also being deployed to the area and away from other operations, indicating that the ISF has begun shifting a significant number of forces to the southern Mosul axis. However, any operation to recapture Mosul remains a long way off and will require intense Coalition assistance to recapture territory. Meanwhile, Iraqi Kurdistan is witnessing a large number of protests against reduced or undelivered salaries and the weak state of the economy, a situation that is exacerbating political differences between Kurdish political parties, while weekly demonstrations against corruption and for government reform continued across southern Iraq. In addition, PM Abadi announced a cabinet reshuffle on February 9, but such an initiative will depend on the support of political blocs to have any hope of succeeding. A unilateral attempt to remove ministers without the support of political blocs could increase support for a no-confidence vote against him, as major parties will not accept PM Abadi removing their senior members from the government. Ongoing political difficulties underscore the need to strengthen Iraq's central government and financial situation as part of any campaign to recapture territory from ISIS, as the Iraqi state and the Kurdistan Regional Government require increase Coalition and U.S. support to prevent from weakening further and fracturing. 

   
   
 
ISW will continue updating on the situation at www.understandingwar.org 
as well as on our Twitter handle @TheStudyofWar

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