Thursday, March 17, 2016

Borderland Beat has covered the violence and chaos that erupted in Reynosa this past weekend that was precipitated by a government operation to "take down" an alleged drug kingpin. That individual, Cheoflas Martinez, is not exactly a major organized crime figure...

Borderland Beat

Posted: 16 Mar 2016 04:56 PM PDT

Posted by DD. Republished from Silver or Lead

Borderland Beat has covered the violence and chaos that erupted in Reynosa this past weekend that was precipitated by a government operation to "take down" an alleged drug kingpin. That individual, Cheoflas Martinez, is not exactly a major organized crime figure.

Alejandro Hope* (see resume following the story), a well respected and leading analyst and thinker on Mexican politics and the Mexican drug wars, has given BB permission to republish today's issue of Silver and Lead wherein he asks the question WHY all this violence occurred and gives his views

WHY?

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Fire on the border. This weekend, a furious and prolonged shootout erupted in the border city of Reynosa, leaving at least nine people dead. The cause: an operation to capture a kingpin, who, of all places, was watching horse races in Mexico City while the battle raged (he was detained in the nation’s capital the next day). This individual, Cleofas Martínez, is not exactly a major organized crime figure. He is the head of a faction of what was once the Gulf Cartel (CDG) and his crew has been fighting other similar gangs for control of drug routes and extortion rights in Reynosa. Yet an attempt to detain him was enough to produce chaos in a city of 600 thousand inhabitants. Why?

The authorities are stuck on the kingpin strategy. The successor gangs of the CDG or the Zetas are small enough to try to dismantle them whole in one fell swoop, not just cut their head. But that requires a more patient and intelligence-heavy approach than a straight kingpin takedown. Since the capabilities of Mexican agencies are not quite there, they do what they have learned to do (capturing individual capos), even if that creates battle scenes in urban areas.
Mexican agencies should know by now that trying to take down a kingpin in Tamaulipas leads to a) prolonged shootouts and b) blockades. The same thing has happened time and time again. But still there were no visible preventive measures (such as readying tow trucks to quickly remove blockades). Somehow there is very little institutional learning in Mexican security agencies.
Tamaulipas has not developed law enforcement institutions that can provide a modicum of peace and order. So the job falls on the armed forces, who tend to be heavy-handed in their dealings with organized crime.
Fragmentation has yet to run its course in Tamaulipas. No single gang is dominant in the state and no one seems able to impose some order in the criminal underworld. That creates an opening for hyper violent local criminals with very short time horizons.

Bottom line. This is not the first time that gun battles have erupted in the border towns of Tamaulipas. It will certainly not be the last time either. Expect disorder to continue in that troubled state for a long time to come.

This and that

Tapping the pipelines. One would have thought that low oil prices would have created a disincentive for fuel theft. One would be wrong. Details here.
The interactive section
You have some security-related information you want to share with us?
Send it to ahope@eldailypost.com

Things to look for

Not much today. Sorry.

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*Alejandro Hope is on the Board of Directors of Insight Crime and Director of Security at the Instituto Mexicano para La Competitividad (IMCO). Prior to his current position, Hope served various management positions at the Center for Investigation and National Security (CISEN) between 2008 and 2011. Between 2001 and 2008, he worked as a consulting partner at Group of Economists and Associates (GEA), a consulting firm specializing in economic and political analysis. He has a degree in Political Science from the University of Pennsylvania and is a Ph.D. candidate in the same subject.

Russia reportedly withdrew approximately fifteen of its airframes from the Bassel al Assad International Airport in Latakia Province from March 15 - 16, following Russian President Vladimir Putin's announcement of a drawdown on March 14...

Russian Airstrikes in Syria:

February 29 - March 15, 2016

By Genevieve Casagrande

Russia reportedly withdrew approximately fifteen of its airframes from the Bassel al Assad International Airport in Latakia Province from March 15 - 16, following Russian President Vladimir Putin's announcement of a drawdown on March 14. Five Russian Su-34 bombers, four Su-25s, five Su-24s, and at least one Su-30 had left the airbase to return to Russia as of March 16, according to a Reuters investigation of Russian state media. Russian officials asserted that Russia would nonetheless continue its counter-terrorism efforts, a term Russia has previously used to obfuscate its air campaign in support of President Bashar al Assad against mainstream elements of the Syrian opposition. Russia has yet to withdraw many of its other aircraft from the base, including numerous short- and medium-range bombers. Putin has messaged his determination to defend both the airfield at Bassel al Assad and Russia's naval basing in Tartous as well as his intent to retain the S-400 air defense system in Latakia. Russia has therefore gained significant capabilities along the Eastern Mediterranean that it intends to secure. Russia will therefore continue to be able to rapidly deploy long- and medium-range air assets into the theater through its airbase in Latakia. As Russia's air campaign had operated at decreased levels since the cessation of hostilities agreement on February 27 and had lowered its rate of airstrikes even further from March 14 - 15, Russia may be removing excess airframes from the base.

Russian airstrikes in Syria have notably decreased since Putin's announcement and partial drawdown. ISW was only able to confirm strikes in the vicinity of the ISIS-held town of Palmyra in central Homs Province with both high and low confidence from March 14 - 15. Pro-regime forces launched a renewed campaign to seize Palmyra in early March, backed heavily by Russian and regime fixed and rotary wing strikes. Russia will likely continue its air operations in support of the regime ground offensive against Palmyra, despite the drawdown. The combination of Russian airpower and likely Iranian reinforcement has brought Assad's forces within four kilometers of Palmyra as of March 16. The current "cessation of hostilities," which does not apply to ISIS targets and which has reduced overall levels of violence has likely allowed the regime to refocus efforts on clearing ISIS's presence in central Homs. Russia will also use its air operations against ISIS as a means to further project itself as a provider of international security and to legitimize its continued presence inside Syria. Russia's airstrikes against ISIS, however, come at a cost. Alleged videos and photos from Palmyra show the damage caused by the intensity of Russia's air campaign in the area, while local sources continue to report civilian casualties, highlighting the continued indiscriminate nature of Russian airstrikes. The Russian air campaign and recovery of Palmyra may on the surface seem to support U.S. objectives against ISIS, but over the long term may exacerbate grievances and insurgency.

The following graphic depicts ISW's assessment of Russian airstrike locations based on reports from local Syrian activist networks, Syrian state-run media, and statements by Russian and Western officials. This map represents locations targeted by Russia's air campaign, rather than the number of individual strikes or sorties.

High-Confidence reporting. ISW places high confidence in reports corroborated both by official government statements reported through credible channels and documentation from rebel factions or activist networks on the ground in Syria deemed to be credible.

Low-Confidence reporting. ISW places low confidence in secondary sources that have not been confirmed or sources deemed likely to contain disinformation.

Another Climate Scientist Indicted for Financial Fraud Analysis on hysteria about February global temperature rise NASA’s chief climate scientist admits warm temps due to El Nino...

Another Climate Scientist Indicted for Financial Fraud

Posted: 17 Mar 2016 11:24 AM PDT

Analysis on hysteria about February global temperature rise

Posted: 17 Mar 2016 11:23 AM PDT

The shrill article below is panicking over February temperatures so I suppose I should point out a few obvious things. I have really dealt with this nonsense before but a few comments anyway. For a start, hanging anything on the figures for one month is dumb. You can have unusually hot months in a year [...]

NASA’s chief climate scientist admits warm temps due to El Nino

Posted: 17 Mar 2016 11:19 AM PDT

Obama to Energy Producers: Drop Dead – Rejects Multi-Billion Dollar Jordan Cove Gas Export Plan

Posted: 16 Mar 2016 05:52 PM PDT

http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2016/03/obama-to-energy-producers-drop-dead.php

Coal company’s stocks plunge after Clinton says she will shutter mines

Posted: 16 Mar 2016 01:33 PM PDT

http://www.speroforum.com/a/UAAIGWWUZK7/77509-Coal-companys-stocks-plunge-after-Clinton-says-she-will-shutter-mines?utm_medium=speronewsco&utm_campaign=&utm_content=77509&utm_source=&utm_term=Coal-companys-stocks-plunge-after-Clinton-says-she-will-shutter-mines#.VunCtvkpC1E America’s biggest coal producer is warning that it is hurtling towards bankruptcy. Shares of Peabody Energy Corp. dropped this week to $4.72 on March 14, and dropped again to $4.00 by close of business on March 15. Today, the price dropped to $2.14 as the trading day opened, falling to as low as $2.03 [...]

Top GOP Lawmaker Is Worried NOAA’s Keeping ‘Global Warming’ Emails From Congress

Posted: 16 Mar 2016 12:55 PM PDT

Top GOP Lawmaker Is Worried NOAA’s Keeping ‘Global Warming’ Emails From Congress http://dailycaller.com/2016/03/16/top-gop-lawmaker-is-worried-noaas-keeping-global-warming-emails-from-congress/ ‘NOAA is not permitted to self-limit the scope of this Committee’s investigation’ — gReader Pro

This report assesses the most powerful Syrian armed opposition groups on the battlefield as of March 16, 2016 and details key aspects of each group, including the group's leadership and perspective on Jabhat al-Nusra, that will need to inform American strategies in Syria...

Syrian Armed Opposition Powerbrokers

By Jennifer Cafarella and Genevieve Casagrande

This report assesses the most powerful Syrian armed opposition groups on the battlefield as of March 16, 2016 and details key aspects of each group, including the group's leadership and perspective on Jabhat al-Nusra, that will need to inform American strategies in Syria. The armed groups examined in this report include groups that currently receive American support, groups that are potential American allies, and groups allied to al Qaeda in Syria that stand to gain additional power in the next year. This report updates part of the assessment of the armed opposition that ISW released in October 2015, titled "Syrian Opposition Guide," which detailed all prominent armed opposition groups in Syria at the time. The report also lays the foundation for an upcoming report that outlines the requirements to produce a Sunni partner in Syria as a component of any course of action to destroy ISIS and al Qaeda in Syria.

Jabhat al Nusra is poised to capitalize on further Sunni alienation in Syria, increasing the threat it poses to the American homeland. Jabhat al Nusra is a strong and capable battlefield force, whose contributions to the war against the Assad regime have allowed it to build a complex network of relationships with Syrian armed groups. It uses this prestige to isolate and eliminate, when possible, groups that receive American support or refuse to tolerate its own ideology. It openly opposes the negotiations and has accused the opposition delegation of treason. It is capable of spoiling a political agreement through spectacular attacks or other forms of escalation, and likely will do so. ISIS is also capable of acting as a spoiler, and likely will seek to exploit Sunni alienation to cement its control over populations in eastern Syria.

Creating a partner from Syria's armed opposition will be difficult, however. This opposition remains diverse and fractious in the sixth year of the war. Opposition groups frequently merge and disassociate, producing a dynamic churn that makes understanding the opposition challenging and developing policies to support the opposition difficult. The opposition is highly unlikely to cohere into a stable, unified structure in the near future without significant outside support and leadership. Ongoing meetings between major armed factions in Turkey to create a unified opposition body show some promise, but failures to do so in the past indicate that we should be hesitant to trust newly declared structures, which are often penetrated by Jabhat al Nusra and similar elements. Developing a strategy to defeat Salafi Jihadi groups in Syria will almost certainly continue to face the challenge that no one armed actor speaks for even a plurality of the Syrian Sunni population that opposes the Assad regime. Nevertheless, there are identifiable powerful groups that shape general trends within the armed opposition and play leading roles in military operations and governance. Some of these groups offer the U.S. an opportunity to build an indigenous Sunni partner to defeat ISIS and al Qaeda in Syria, but only if the U.S. applies leadership, works smartly, and allocates sufficient resources.

Islam—Facts or Dreams?

Andrew C. McCarthy is a senior fellow at the National Review Institute. A graduate of Columbia College, he received his J.D. at New York Law School. For 18 years, he was an Assistant U.S. Attorney in the Southern District of New York, and from 1993-95 he led the terrorism prosecution against Sheik Omar Abdel Rahman and 11 others in connection with the 1993 World Trade Center bombing and a plot to bomb New York City landmarks. Following the 9/11 attacks, he supervised the Justice Department’s command post near Ground Zero. He has also served as a Special Assistant to the Deputy Secretary of Defense and an adjunct professor at Fordham University’s School of Law and New York Law School. He writes widely for newspapers and journals including National Review, PJ Media, and The New Criterion, and is the author of several books, including Willful Blindness: A Memoir of the Jihad and Grand Jihad: How Islam and the Left Sabotages America.

The following is adapted from a speech delivered on February 24, 2016, at Hillsdale College’s Allan P. Kirby, Jr. Center for Constitutional Studies and Citizenship in Washington, D.C., as part of the AWC Family Foundation Lecture Series.

separator2

In 1993 I was a seasoned federal prosecutor, but I only knew as much about Islam as the average American with a reasonably good education—which is to say, not much. Consequently, when I was assigned to lead the prosecution of a terrorist cell that had bombed the World Trade Center and was plotting an even more devastating strike—simultaneous attacks on the Lincoln and Holland Tunnels, the United Nations complex on the East River, and the FBI’s lower Manhattan headquarters—I had no trouble believing what our government was saying: that we should read nothing into the fact that all the men in this terrorist cell were Muslims; that their actions were not representative of any religion or belief system; and that to the extent they were explaining their atrocities by citing Islamic scripture, they were twisting and perverting one of the world’s great religions, a religion that encourages peace. . . . continue reading

Lake Okeechobee and the Northern Estuaries: The High Cost of High Water...

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Lake Okeechobee Watershed
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Lake Okeechobee and the Northern Estuaries: The High Cost of High Water

Audubon recommends actions to ending harmful discharges to the Caloosahatchee and St. Lucie estuaries.

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Click to download fact sheet.

There is an ecological crisis in the Lake Okeechobee watershed. Large quantities of water with high levels of nutrient pollution from Lake Okeechobee and local basins are being discharged through the fragile St. Lucie and Caloosahatchee estuaries.

The discharges have caused algae blooms to form, which negatively impacts native vegetation, fish, and coastal birds. Florida’s famously‐clear coastal waters have turned dark brown and green, driving away tourists, harming local businesses, and reducing home values. Scientists have also detected harmful bacteria in some areas, making the water dangerous for human contact.

There is no quick fix to solve this problem. Protecting the health of Lake Okeechobee and the St. Lucie and Caloosahatchee estuaries requires long-term solutions that hold water in the right places at the right time to more closely replicate the balance of water levels in the historic Everglades.

Learn more about this issue and Audubon's recommendations for comprehensive solutions by downloading our latest fact sheet. Please feel free to share online or distribute at your next Audubon Chapter meeting or community gathering.

Tuesday, March 15, 2016

European Union Caving to Turkey's Blackmail?...

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Burak Bekdil: European Union Caving to Turkey's Blackmail?
Raymond Ibrahim: U.S. Policy Made 2015 the Worst Persecution of Christians "in Modern History"

European Union Caving to Turkey's Blackmail?

by Burak Bekdil • March 15, 2016 at 5:00 am

When Turkey's Constitutional Court ruled that the detention for 92 days of two journalists, Can Dundar and Erdem Gul, constituted a breach of their basic rights, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan did not hide his anger, and said he would not obey the supreme court's ruling.
Turkish courts, controlled by Erdogan's government, put the newspaper Zaman, one of the last remaining media critics of Erdogan, under state control. A court actually appointed administrators to run the newspaper. Editor-in-chief Sevgi Akarcesme said that this was effectively the end of media freedom in Turkey.
Turkey ranks 149th amongst the 180 countries in the Reporters Without Borders' World Press Freedom Index 2015.
Quite realistically, Nigel Farage, a British opposition figure, accused Turkey of "blackmailing" the EU over the Syrian refugee crisis and its proposed EU membership.

Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (left) recently said angrily that he would not obey a supreme court order to release two journalists after 92 days of detention. Nigel Farage (right), a British opposition party leader, accused Turkey of "blackmailing" the EU over the Syrian refugee crisis and its proposed EU membership.

Turkey has been sliding into an ugly Islamist despotism. Yet its relations with the European Union (EU) which it aspires to join has rarely been better. Some call it a mutually "transactional" improvement: "pragmatism." Others, in less diplomatic language, call it Turkish blackmailing on the back of the refugee crisis. Even Turkey's Prime Minister Ahmet Davutogu admitted that his latest round of negotiations with Europe's leaders was a fine bargaining "a la Kayseri," a Turkish city famous for its tough-bargaining merchants.

In reality, modern Turkey has never been this galactically distant from the core values enshrined by the European civilization and its institutions, including even the EU.

Continue Reading Article

U.S. Policy Made 2015 the Worst Persecution of Christians "in Modern History"

by Raymond Ibrahim • March 15, 2016 at 4:00 am

In 35 nations Islamic extremism "has risen to a level akin to ethnic cleansing" of Christians.
Something else stands behind this rise of genocidal "Islamic extremism": U.S. foreign policy. In every Muslim nation where the U.S. has intervened in the name of "freedom and democracy," Christian life has exponentially worsened.
For years the Obama administration has refused to list Boko Haram as a terrorist organization, and has argued that its violence had nothing to do with Islam and was a result of poverty and grievances. Instead, the U.S. pressured the Nigerian government to make concessions, including by building more mosques—the very structures, as the Nigerian lawyer Emmanuel Ogebe said, where Muslims are radicalized and recruited for the jihad.
Globally empowering forces hostile to Christians is synonymous with globally empowering forces hostile to America.
The primary achievement of U.S. foreign policies, apart from wasted American blood and treasure—
is the unprecedented rise in Muslim nations of Islamic forces outspokenly bent on destroying America.

2015 was the "worst year in modern history for Christian persecution," according to Open Doors, a human rights organization that has been documenting the persecution of Christians since 1955.

According to its latest data, more than 7,000 Christians were killed for their faith in 2015 — almost twice as many as in 2014. In addition, more than 2,400 churches were attacked, damaged or destroyed — again, more than double the number of the previous year.

In the words of Open Doors' CEO, David Curry: