Las Vegas hasRomney in the Lead From CAESAR’S PALACE Interesting article... It reaches this conclusion - WITHOUT using polls. They might be on to something.  Time is running out. http://www.livetradingnews.com/las-vegas-has-romney-in-the-lead-87797.htm#.UGiR- A Las Vegas “odds maker” gives his reasons for big win by Romney in November. Interesting analysis. Most political predictions are made by biased pollsters,pundits, or prognosticatorswho are either rooting for Republicans or Democrats. I am neither. I am a formerLibertarian Vice Presidentialnominee, and a well-knownVegas odds maker with one of the most accurate records of predicting political races. But as an odds maker with a pretty remarkable track record of picking political races, I play no favorites. I simply use common sense to call them as I see them. Back in late December I released my NewYear’s Predictions. I predicted back then- before a single GOP primary had been held, withRomney trailing for months to almost every GOP competitor from Rick Perry to HermanCain to Newt- that Romneywould easily rout his competition to win the GOP nomination by a landslide. I also predicted that the Presidential race betweenObama and Romney would be very close until election day. But that on election dayRomney would win by alandslide similar to Reagan-Carter in 1980. Understanding history, today I am even more convinced of a resounding Romney victory. 32 years ago at this moment in time, Reagan was losing by 9 points to Carter. Romney is right now running even in polls. So why do most pollstersgive Obama the edge? First, most pollsters are missing one ingredient- common sense. Here is my gut instinct. Not one American who voted for McCain 4 years ago will switch to Obama. Not one in all the land. But many millions of people who voted for an unknown Obama 4 years ago are angry, disillusioned, turned off, or scared about the future. Voters know Obama now- and that is a bad harbinger. Now to an analysis of the voting blocks that matter in U.S. politics: **Black voters. Obama has nowhere to go but down among this group. His endorsement of gay marriage has alienated many black church going Christians. He may get 88% of their vote instead of the 96% he got in 2008. This is not good news for Obama. Jewish voters. Obama has been weak in his support of Israel . Many Jewish voters and big donors are angry and disappointed. I predictObama’s Jewish support drops from 78% in 2008 to the low 60′s. This is not good news forObama. **Youth voters. Obama’s biggest and most enthusiastic believers from 4 years ago have graduated into a job market from hell. Young people are disillusioned, frightened, and broke- a bad combination. The enthusiasm is long gone. Turnout will be much lower among young voters, as will actual voting percentages. This not good news for Obama. Catholic voters. Obama won a majority of Catholics in 2008. That won’t happen again. Out of desperation to please women, Obama went to war with the Catholic Church overcontraception. Now he is being sued by the Catholic Church. Majority lost. This is not good news for Obama. **Small Business owners. Because I ran for Vice President last time around, and I’m a small businessman myself, I know literally thousands of small business owners. At least 40% of them in my circle of friends, fans and supporters voted forObama 4 years ago to give someone different a chance. As I warned them that he would pursue a war on capitalism and demonizeanyone who owned a business…that he’d support unions over the private sector in a big way…that he’doverwhelm the economy with spending and debt. My friendsdidn’t listen. Four years later, Ican’t find one person in my circle of small business owner friends voting for Obama. Not one. This is not good news forObama. Blue collar working class whites: Do I need to say a thing? White working class voters are about as happy withObama as Boston Red Soxfans feel about the New YorkYankees. This is not good news for Obama. Suburban moms. The issueisn’t contraception, it’s having a job to pay for contraception.Obama’s economy frightens these moms. They are worried about putting food on the table. They fear for theirchildren’s future. This is not good news for Obama. Military Veterans. McCain wonthis group by 10 points.Romney is winning by 24 points. The more our militaryvets got to see of Obama, the more they disliked him. This is not good news for Obama. Add it up. Is there one major group where Obama has gained since 2008? Will anyone in America wake up on election day saying, I didn’tvote for Obama 4 years ago, but he’s done such a fantastic job, I can’t wait to vote for him today. Does anyone feel that a vote for Obama makes their job more secure? Forget the polls. My gut instincts as a Vegas odds maker and common sense small businessman tell me this will be a historic landslide and a world-class repudiation ofObama’s radical and riskysocialist agenda. It’s Reagan-Carter all over again. But I’ll give Obama credit for one thing- he is living proof that familiarity breeds contempt.