China's warplanes aren't just sending a message to Taiwan. Beijing wants America's attention, too

Brad Lendon ---------- The Taiwan Ministry of Defense released this undated file photo of a Chinese J-16 fighter jet when it announced PLA aircraft entered its air defense identification zone. The warplanes came in successive waves, entering Taiwan's defense zone in record numbers and frequency. Since October 1, the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) has sent 150 planes — including fighter jets and nuclear-capable bombers — into Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ), further heightening fears of the Chinese threat to the self-governed island. The Chinese flights have not come close to what Taiwan considers its sovereign airspace — 12 nautical miles from its coastlines — but Taipei has said it will respond to any incursion into its ADIZ either via radio warnings, anti-aircraft missile tracking or fighter jet intercepts. And while analysts say China's ramping up of these flights in no way suggests actual combat is imminent, they are meant to send a forceful message to Taiwan and its friends — most notably the United States. Here's a breakdown of why China is doing this now: Military intimidation China's incursions are "a well-thought-out program from Beijing, meant to be carried out over months and years, with several interrelated goals," said Jacob Stokes, a fellow in the Indo-Pacific security program at the Center for a New American Security. "The first is political-military signaling to try to intimidate the government in Taiwan and exert China's claim to the self-governing island." Taiwan and mainland China have been governed separately since the end of a civil war more than seven decades ago, in which the defeated Nationalists fled to Taipei. However, Beijing views Taiwan as an inseparable part of its territory — even though the Chinese Communist Party has never governed the democratic island of about 24 million people. And Chinese President Xi Jinping has refused to rule out military force to capture Taiwan if necessary. "China needs levers to deter Taiwan from taking undesirable courses of action, especially independence-leaning initiatives," said Lionel Fatton, an Indo-Pacific affairs expert at Webster University in Switzerland. Fatton said the increase in PLA flights is Beijing telling Taipei it has the means and firepower to back up that hardline stance. It's classic deterrence — show strength before an opponent takes action that will result in an unacceptable cost, he added. "We can expect China to continue its pressure campaign to make sure its deterrent posture remains strong," Fatton said. Chinese analysts, meanwhile, have described the incursions as purely "reactive," responding to what Beijing sees as "provocative" actions by Taiwan and the US. Li Fei, a Taiwan affairs expert with Xiamen University, said a key factor behind China's record incursions was "increasing collusion" between the US and Taiwan, which he added had repeatedly crossed Beijing's "red lines." "Mainland [China] had to react in response, and strengthen its psychological deterrent power on Taiwan independence forces," Li said. These "red lines" were laid out in a statement issued by the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs on Monday. "The US has been making negative moves by selling arms to Taiwan and strengthening official and military ties with Taiwan, including the launch of a $750 million arms sale plan to Taiwan, the landing of US military aircraft in Taiwan and frequent sailing of US warships across the Taiwan Strait," ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying said. Domestically, the flights also serve as an opportunity to boost nationalism among the Chinese public. "Because the US keeps touching China's bottom line, calls for reunification are running high among the (Chinese) people," Li said. It's also no coincidence that the spike in PLA incursions began on October 1, the 72nd anniversary of the Communist Party taking power. "These warplanes appearing at Taiwan Straits on China's National Day is a new ceremony of Chinese people to celebrate the holiday," Hu Xijin, editor-in-chief of state-run nationalist tabloid the Global Times, said on Twitter. Military experience Sending dozens of warplanes into Taiwan's ADIZ allows the PLA to gather intelligence, gain experience and increase fighting capability, experts say. "The PLA is testing and developing an assessment of Taiwan's ability to detect and willingness to respond to air threats. It is also recording Taiwan's response times, tactics and air intercept procedures," said Carl Schuster, a former director of operations at the US Pacific Command's Joint Intelligence Center. The increasing number of PLA aircraft involved in the incursions also develops the PLA's ability to work with the large number of military assets that would likely be deployed in combat. "Coordinated air operations involving large numbers of aircraft at a large distance is more complicated than small unit operations close to home base," Schuster said. "The air controller's view of the battle space is less accurate at 100 nautical miles than it is at 10. Adding aircraft increases that complexity." Schuster said, to his knowledge, the latest PLA flights represent the largest concentration of Chinese military aircraft ever operating that far from their home bases. So it's possible the large-scale flights could continue. Essentially, the PLA needs the practice. Sending a message Past instances of larger incursions of PLA flights into Taiwan's ADIZ have come after nations supporting Taipei have done something that angers Beijing. For instance, an incursion of 25 PLA planes in April came a day after the US secretary of state warned Beijing that Washington was committed to the defense of Taiwan. And a June incursion of 28 PLA warplanes came after the Group of Seven (G7) leaders issued a joint statement scolding China for a series of issues and underscored the importance of peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait. The past week's incursions come as the US, Japan, the United Kingdom, New Zealand and the Netherlands conducted multilateral naval exercises near Okinawa, which is just 730 kilometers (453 miles) from Taiwan, according to a statement from Japan's Maritime Self-Defense Force. The exercises involved one British and two US aircraft carriers. The large-scale Chinese flights, involving dozens of planes, probably had their genesis months ago, said Peter Layton, a fellow at the Griffith Asia Institute in Australia. "The PLA Air Force has a reputation for preferring well-planned, heavily choreographed activities," he added. As such, the surge of PLA flights was likely first envisioned "as a muscular display to accompany the anniversary" of China's founding on October 1, said Timothy Heath, senior international defense researcher at the RAND Corp. think tank in Washington. "However, for such a ceremonial event, one day of 'air parade' activity would have been sufficient," Heath said, adding that the naval exercises, the fact Britain recently sent a destroyer through the Taiwan Strait, and a new leadership in Japan considering its future Taiwan policy, all likely played a part in China expanding the flights. "The deployment of repeated waves of combat air formations is a flexible tool for sending a political signal and a warning to Taiwan and the Western countries," Heath said. Jessie Yeung, Digital Producer, CNN Digital Worldwide Brad Lendon is a Senior Producer for CNN International in Hong Kong. He covers military affairs in the Asia-Pacific region.