SM1's BLOG 4 U: AN AGGREGATION OF CONSERVATIVE VIEWS, NEWS, SOME HUMOR, & SCIENCE TOO! ... "♂, ♀, *, †, ∞"
Friday, December 31, 2021
Why George Soros Is Responsible for the Largest Spike in Murder in American History by S.H. BLANNELBERRY on DECEMBER 30, 2021
Related Tags: Buzz, News
George Soros at the 2011 World Economic Forum. (Photo: Michael Wuertenberg/Wikipedia)
In a recent opinion piece published on RealClearPolitics, Sen. Tom Cotton makes the argument that George Soros is responsible for the 2020 spike in murder, the largest in American history.
Cotton contends that the 91-year-old billionaire and his ilk have created a revolving door of justice that puts hardened criminals back out on the streets.
“Last year, our nation experienced the largest increase in murder in American history and the largest number of drug overdose deaths ever recorded. This carnage continues today and is not distributed equally. Instead, it is concentrated in cities and localities where radical, left-wing, George Soros progressives have captured state and district attorney offices,” writes Cotton.
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“These legal arsonists condemn our rule of law as ‘systemically racist’ and have not simply abused prosecutorial discretion, they have embraced prosecutorial nullification,” he continues. “As a result, a contagion of crime has infected virtually every neighborhood under their charge.”
Cotton goes on to name names and list examples of how the Soros prosecutors have gone soft on crime:
In Chicago, Cook County State’s Attorney Kim Foxx allows theft under $1,000 to go unpunished.
In Manhattan, District Attorney Cyrus Vance Jr. refuses to enforce laws against prostitution.
In Baltimore, State’s Attorney Marilyn Mosby has unilaterally declared the war on drugs “over” and is refusing to criminally charge drug users in the middle of the worst drug crisis in American history.
For a time, Los Angeles District Attorney George Gascon even stopped enforcing laws against disturbing the peace, resisting arrest, and making criminal threats.
The result? As you’d imagine, they’re pretty grim. Cotton writes:
All of these cities have paid a terrible price for these insane policies. Last year, the number of homicides in Chicago rose by 56%, and more than 1,000 Cook County residents have been murdered in 2021. In New York City, murder increased 47% and shootings soared 97%. In 2020, the murder rate in Baltimore was higher than El Salvador’s or Guatemala’s — nations from which citizens often attempt to claim asylum purely based on gang violence and murder—and this year murder in Baltimore is on track to be even higher. Murder in Los Angeles rose 36% last year and is on track to rise another 17% this year.
Not enforcing the rule of law is a recipe for chaos. Which raises the question, why would Soros progressives want to foment widespread civil disorder?
Your thoughts?
Thursday, December 30, 2021
Biden’s Blundering Energy Policy & The Global energy crisis:
Energy prices continued to surge to fresh records as renewed fears stoked panic about the worst shortage in decades. India warned that it only had four days of coal reserves left, German power plants ran out of fuel and China unloaded an Australian coal shipment despite an import ban and icy relations. Supply was just not there as economies rebounded from a pandemic-induced lull, while problems like logistical logjams and transport bottlenecks added to the pressure (OPEC+ didn't come to the rescue, but Vladimir Putin tried to, and the U.S. tapped the Strategic Petroleum Reserve).
Tuesday, December 28, 2021
Friday, December 24, 2021
Biden Loves this Economy: From Evergrande crisis to tech crackdown: The biggest business stories from China in 2021
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It's been a tumultuous year for business in China.
A sweeping regulatory crackdown, championed by President Xi Jinping, has shaken private enterprises in sectors as diverse as tech, finance, property, education, gaming and entertainment.
Beijing has said it wants to fix longstanding concerns about economic inequality in the country and promote "common prosperity." But analysts say the unprecedented regulatory action is also about Beijing's desire to rein in the growing power of Big Tech and reassert the Communist Party's dominance in every aspect of the economy and society.
However, the world's second-largest economy is also looking a lot shakier now than it did at the start of this year.
Faced with the prospect of an economic hard landing, Beijing appears to be backing off the tough stance it took on the private sector for most of this year and may focus on maintaining stability in 2022.
Here are the business stories that have shaped China over the past 12 months.
Economic recovery meets speed bumps
China was the only major economy to grow in 2020 — but expansion slowed this year as the country faced repeated Covid outbreaks, supply chain disruptions, and a deepening real estate slump. That could threaten social and political stability in the country and have serious consequences for the global economy.
Beijing's regulatory crackdown triggered huge layoffs among many companies, pressuring the job sector as it tries to recover from the pandemic.
China's economy is still expected to grow significantly in 2021 — but not as quickly as previously projected, with the World Bank cutting its forecasts for the country's economic expansion this year and next.
Power shortages hit manufacturing
A boom in construction and manufacturing drove much of China's economic recovery this year, and continues to play a vital role in growth.
But that work requires tons of power and thus massive amounts of coal.
Power shortages began to bite in June, and worsened in the fall when coal prices soared.
For weeks, the power crunch triggered blackouts for households and forced factories to cut production — a threat to the country's vast economy.
And Beijing's targets to reduce carbon emissions only added to the pressure.
Finally as winter approached, factories began recovering from the impact with the help of a big jump in coal supply. Power shortages eased, and the price of raw materials had dropped significantly by the start of December.
China's disappearing ships
Ships in Chinese waters are disappearing from industry tracking systems, creating yet another headache for the global supply chain.
China's growing isolation from the rest of the world — along with a deepening mistrust of foreign influence — may be to blame.
Analysts say they started noticing the drop-off in shipping traffic toward the end of October, as China prepared to enact a new legislation to increase government control over data and information.
A loss of information from mainland China — home to six of the world's 10 busiest container ports — could create more problems for an already troubled global shipping industry. Supply chains have been under strain this year as badly congested ports struggle to keep up with a rapidly rebounding demand for goods.
China's desire to retain absolute control over all data and information within its borders isn't surprising. The country has been pushing for economic self-sufficiency as it faces external threats, such as US sanctions on key technologies.
Didi to delist from New York after disastrous IPO
Ride-hailing giant Didi announced in early December that it would delist from the New York Stock Exchange and move to Hong Kong.
The move came just five months after Didi launched its blockbuster, $4.4 billion IPO in the United States — a decision that turned into a fiasco for the company. Its share price collapsed as Beijing cracked down on the firm, saying shortly after the offering that it would ban Didi from app stores in China because it broke privacy laws and posed cybersecurity risks.
Beijing's decision to target Didi was widely seen as punishment for its decision to go public overseas, and the company became a poster child of China's efforts to rein in what the government sees as unruly Big Tech firms. In the weeks after the IPO, Chinese authorities proposed that companies with data on more than 1 million users seek approval before listing overseas.
Evergrande's debt default
Evergrande, the embattled Chinese property developer, has defaulted on its debt. Now Beijing is intervening to prevent a disorderly collapse of the indebted real estate group that could wreak havoc on the economy.
Fitch Ratings earlier this month declared the property developer has entered "restricted default," reflecting its inability to pay overdue interest on two dollar bonds.
Evergrande's apparent failure to pay that interest has revived fears about the future of the company, which is reeling under more than $300 billion of total liabilities. Evergrande is massive — it has about 200,000 employees, raked in more than $110 billion in sales last year, and owns more than 1,300 developments in over 280 cities, according to the company.
Analysts have long been concerned that a collapse could trigger wider risks for China's property market, hurting homeowners and the broader financial system. Real estate and related industries account for as much as 30% of GDP. The US Federal Reserve warned in November that trouble in Chinese real estate could damage the global economy.
There's already plenty of evidence that Beijing is taking a leading role in guiding Evergrande through a restructuring of its debt and sprawling business operations.
But analysts warned the real estate crisis remains a looming threat for China.
Laura He, Reporter & Digital Producer, CNN Business
Laura He is a reporter and digital producer for CNN Business. She covers
Sunday, December 19, 2021
California Gov. Gavin Newsom wants to flip from reformer to crime-fighter. Newsom & his Libtardian cronies created this mess! Now the Lapdog Fake News Media have turned against them & covered the Democrats “weak on crime-looting & thuggery program”…! The cesspool of Marxist Socialist Democratic California now has a solution to it’s spawning problem! They’re about to try claim credit for addressing their Protégé! Follow the $$$ see who actually gets the $$$ … Democratic Socialist FATCATS looting California at the highest levels! #UsefulIdiots will applaud Newsome crime fighter, cesspool kingpin!
Gov. Gavin Newsom turns on criminals with $300M smash-and-grab proposal
Mary Kay Linge
AP
The Democrat, who positioned himself for years as a criminal justice advocate, aims to spend $300 million to combat smash-and-grab robberies after a spate of brazen attacks on retailers across the state.
“The rules are the rules, the laws are the laws, and we just want people to be held to account,” Newsom said Friday as he announced his pricey plan to crack down on the criminal rings that he said are organizing the terrifying thefts.
In Los Angeles, nearly a dozen “flash-mob” raids resulted in $350 million worth of losses over a 10-day period in November.
Newsom’s spending proposal, which he will add to his annual budget package in January, includes $255 million to place local law enforcement officers in stores, $18 million to launch a new “organized theft” unit in the state attorney general’s office, and $20 million to help victimized small businesses.
Workers remove a broken window at a Yves Saint Laurent in San Francisco. A recent spate of smash-and-grab robberies have terrorized the city’s high-end retailers.
AP
“These organized retail mobs … (have) a profound impact on our feelings of safety here in this state, this region and as I note, this country,” Newsom said.
But critics said the plan is too little, too late.
“The Democrats’ relentless push for their ‘criminals first’ agenda has turned this once-majestic state into a sanctuary for criminals,” GOP state senate leader Scott Wilk said after Newsom unveiled the plan.
Republicans have blamed reforms championed by Newsom and other progressive Democrats for the frightening crime wave.
Gov. Newsom, above, is flipped from reformer to crime fighter after the latest rash of attack.
MediaNews Group via Getty Images
Proposition 47, a 2014 law that Newsom backed as a compassionate measure to keep low-level criminals out of crowded prisons, doubled the amount a suspect could steal to be considered a felony from $450 to $950.
“It’s a s–t show over here,” LAPD Det. Jamie McBride, a director of the Los Angeles Police Protective League police union, told The Post this month.
McBride and other critics also point to no-bail policies set by left-wing district attorneys like Los Angeles DA George Gascón and San Francisco DA Chesa Boudin for the retail theft explosion.
Surveillance footage of a recent smash-and-grab robbery in Los Angeles.
MediaNews Group via Getty Images
Thursday, December 16, 2021
Another Player wants to get in the game….Biden’s Blundering Agenda’s Flubberby Certainly Offers Opportunities…!
Iran Tests the Defenses of the U.S. Navy in the Strait of Hormuz
Kris Osborn
Here's What You Need to Remember: Although unlikely to cause catastrophic structural damage to larger U.S. Navy ship with small arms fire or missiles, Iranian small boats packed with explosives for suicide bombing missions could present a very serious threat to a large surface ship.
Swarms of Iranian small boats harassed and tried to intimidate a group of U.S. Navy ships as they transited the Strait of Hormuz on May 10, prompting the U.S. warships to repeatedly fire warning shots in an effort to diffuse the situation.
Several U.S. Navy Patrol boats, a Navy guided-missile cruiser and several U.S. Coast Guard ships were escorting a guided missile submarine, the USS Georgia, when they were approached at provocative high-speeds by Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy boats with, as a Navy report describes it, “their weapons uncovered and manned.”
The Iranian high-speed approaches, which closed within just 150 yards of the U.S. Coast Guard Cutter Maui traveling at speeds above 30 knots, were conducted by Iranian Fast In-Shore Attack Craft vessels.
“After the two IRGCN vessels failed to respond to repeated warnings and closed within 300 yards, Maui exercised lawful de-escalatory measures by firing warning shots. The two IRGCN vessels again failed to respond to warnings and closed to within 150 yards of Maui, at which time Maui fired additional warning shots,” according to the Navy report.
While the Navy report referred to the Iranian actions as “unsafe and unprofessional,” reactions among service and Pentagon leaders may have been even more pronounced. Certainly, the kind of event is by no means new or unprecedented, as Iran has long been known to operate in this fashion, regularly stopping short of actually starting a lethal weapons engagement.
The narrow Strait of Hormuz is also well known as a high-tension flashpoint close to the Iranian border where large portions of the region’s commercial and military shipping traffic travel. The Strait of Hormuz is also known for being an area with a high risk for mines and even some kinds of land-fired ballistic missiles.
Apart from simply engaging in harassing or provocative behavior, there does not appear to be a sensible explanation for the Iranian small boat actions, unless, of course, the small boat swarming included some kind of serious attack contingency. The strategic aim of a small boat attack would of course be to simply overwhelm ship defenses and deck-mounted guns by approaching in close proximity in a dispersed fashion to “flood the zone” so to speak, and breach the protective perimeter or envelope surrounding a surface ship and it’s close-in weapons ranges with speed and volume.
Although unlikely to cause catastrophic structural damage to larger U.S. Navy ship with small arms fire or missiles, Iranian small boats packed with explosives for suicide bombing missions could present a very serious threat to a large surface ship, depending upon the size and scope of a blast radius. Destroying numerous small boats approaching simultaneously would, it seems, present a kind of ship defense predicament for certain ships such as Navy Cruisers or U.S. Coast Guard ships armed with medium-caliber deck-mounted guns.
However, alongside deck-mounted guns or other weapons, U.S. Navy warships could be armed with Close-in-Weapons-Systems (CIWS) phalanx guns able to fire hundreds of projectiles per minute to blanket areas with defensive fire. A deck-mounted Phalanx, such as the Navy’s current CIWS weapon, would fire hundreds of small steel penetrating projectile rods at approaching small boats, potentially disabling or even destroying them as they seek to approach. CIWS can also blanket a large area and, interestingly, the Navy began a massive fleet-wide upgrade of its CIWS weapons system years ago for the specific purpose of destroying small boat attacks. As far back as 2014, the U.S. Navy began implementing a CIWS 1B variant upgrade which greatly expanded the protective aperture beyond air defense to incorporate surface defenses as well, in part to specifically counter the kinds of small boat threats regularly presented by Iran.
Therefore, upgraded CIWS weapons can now destroy close-in threats that are on the surface and not just coming from the air, a protective technology of great relevance to these kinds of provocation. Should the small boats simply be too fast and too numerous for deck mounted guns or larger munitions to intercept, then a surface-firing CIWS weapon could prevent an attacking small boat from being able to closely approach or penetrate the ship’s hull.
However, the group of Navy ships only included one navy cruiser along with several U.S. Navy and U.S. Coast Guard Patrol Boats, according to the Navy report. While some Coast Guard Cutters do have CIWS, most of the smaller Navy and Coast Guard patrol ships do not. Therefore, perhaps the Iranian small boats were extra provocative, at least in part, because they knew they might not have to face CIWS should they approach closer in. Regardless, for a host of obvious reasons, there is little rationale or basis upon which it might appear to make any sense for the Iranian fast-attack craft to engage U.S. Navy warships in any kind of serious exchange of fire.
Kris Osborn is the defense editor for the National Interest. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a Highly Qualified Expert with the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a master’s degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University.
This article first appeared earlier in 2021 and is being republished due to reader interest.
US sends China and Russia horrifying warning by blasting target with 'futuristic laser'
Jacob Paul
The laser beam test was fired from USS Portland and destroyed its practice target in the Gulf of Ade, which is between East Africa and the Arabian Peninsula. The weapon could be a "game-changer" in conflicts at sea, according to US officials. This laser test also comes after the weapon was first tested at sea in May last year, when the USS Portland used it to take out a flying drone.
And is the most recent laser test, the Navy said its "Laser Weapon System" had "successfully engaged" the target, which was this time floating in the sea.
But lasers are no new phenomenon for the US Navy.
In fact, they have been working on these kinds of weapons since way back in the Cold War.
But now, as tension heats up in the South China Sea, American officials warned that these weapons could be used in a potential war against China.
This would mean that US ships would not have to waste time reloading their guns and missiles if the Chinese launch an attack.And the lasers could be used to provide cover while US ships launch attack missiles.
The commanding officer of the USS Portland has said that the laser weapon is "redefining war at sea for the Navy".
It could be used against drone boats carrying explosives and deployed by Yemen's Houthi rebels in the Red Sea, US officials have said.
In 2018 a Congressional report called what are known as "directed energy" weapons, such as lasers, "game-changer".
The report said that these lasers are "regarded as a 'game changer' for defending Navy surface ships against enemy missiles".
The report also made clear that there has been "substantial progress toward deploying high-energy solid-state lasers on ships".
It read: "Navy surface ships would use high-energy solid-state lasers initially for countering small boats, UAVs [unmanned aerial vehicles] and potentially in the future for countering ASCMs [anti-ship cruise missiles] and ASBMs [anti-ship ballistic missiles].
"They would be short-range defensive weapons. They would counter targets at ranges of about one mile to perhaps eventually a few miles."
This comes as tension with China has nearly reached boiling point.
It comes as China's military presence in the South China Sea has put increasing pressure on Taiwan, which China claims it owns.
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But the US, who back Taiwan, which wants independence, has warned that if China invades it will be prepared to step in.
Henry Boyd, a Britain-based defence analyst with the International Institute for Strategic Studies said: "The need to stand up to China is a strong enough motivating factor that not taking this fight would also be seen as a betrayal of American national interests."
And on the Russia-Ukraine border, the US has become increasingly concerned about the build-up of around 100,000 Russian troops sent there by Vladimir Putin.
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President Joe Biden has urged Mr Putin not to launch an invasion of Ukraine.
While Mr Biden has said that sending U.S. ground combat troops to Ukraine in the event of a Russian invasion was "never on the table", he did say that Russia will pay "a terrible price".
The Disaster at Our Southern Border
August 2021 • Volume 50, Number 8 • Mark Morgan
Mark Morgan
Former Acting Commissioner, U.S. Customs and Border Protection
Mark Morgan is a visiting fellow at the Federation for American Immigration Reform and at the Heritage Foundation. He served as acting commissioner of U.S. Customs and Border Protection and acting director of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement in the Trump administration and as chief of U.S. Border Patrol in the Obama administration. A Marine veteran and a former officer in the LAPD, he served for over 20 years in the FBI, including as the assistant section chief of the National Center for the Analysis of Violent Crime Branch; deputy on-scene commander in Baghdad, Iraq; special agent in charge of the El Paso Division; and assistant director in charge of the FBI Academy in Quantico, Virginia. He has a B.S. in engineering from Central Missouri State University and a J.D. from the University of Missouri, Kansas City.
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The following is adapted from a speech delivered on July 22, 2021, at Hillsdale College’s Allan P. Kirby, Jr. Center for Constitutional Studies and Citizenship in Washington, D.C., as part of the AWC Family Foundation Lecture Series.
In just a few short months, the Biden administration has created a disaster on the southern border of the United States. It did so by methodically—and by all indications intentionally—undoing every meaningful border security measure that had been in place. As a result, we have had five straight months of over 170,000 illegal immigrants apprehended at the border. The number in June was the highest in over 20 years. And Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) has been effectively shut down.
Our national discussion of border security is generally misleading, and it is designed to be misleading by those who favor open borders. They frame the issue as if the American people face a binary choice: either let all immigrants in because they are “looking for a better life” or close our borders completely and inhumanely. But this is a false choice. The unspoken alternative is to enforce the law, taking in immigrants who enter the U.S. legally while securing our borders against those who attempt to enter illegally—particularly those meaning to do us harm.
Illegal immigration is, of course, nothing new. It has been a problem in our country for many decades. What is relatively new is the total lack of concern we see in the Biden administration, especially in terms of the national security aspect of border control.
Unbelievable as it may seem to us today, it was only 15 years ago—with the 9/11 terrorist attacks still fresh in our minds—when Congress came together in a bipartisan effort to pass the Secure Fence Act of 2006. The Secure Fence Act directed the Department of Homeland Security to take appropriate actions to achieve “operational control” over U.S. land and maritime borders to “prevent unlawful entry.” It defined operational control as the prevention of all unlawful entries into the U.S., including terrorists, instruments of terrorism, narcotics, and other contraband. And it specifically set the goal of “provid[ing] at least two layers of reinforced fencing, installation of additional physical barriers, roads, lighting, cameras, and sensors.” It added thousands of Border Patrol personnel, mandated the acquisition of new technologies, and resulted in the construction of more than 650 miles of physical barrier along the southern border of the U.S. between 2006 and 2011.
To repeat, this legislation was passed in a bipartisan spirit, with 80 members of the U.S. Senate voting to approve it. This included Senator Barack Obama, who said in 2005: “We simply cannot allow people to pour into the United States undetected, undocumented, unchecked, and circumventing the line of people who are waiting patiently, diligently, and lawfully to become immigrants in this country.” It included Senator Chuck Schumer, who said in 2009: “Illegal immigration is wrong, plain and simple. . . . People who enter the United States without permission are illegal aliens and illegal aliens should not be treated the same as people who enter the U.S. legally.” And it included Senator Joe Biden, who said in 2006: “Let me tell you something, folks, people are driving across that border with tons, tons—hear me, tons—of everything from byproducts from methamphetamine to cocaine to heroin, and it’s all coming up through corrupt Mexico.”
Some attribute the breakdown of the bipartisan consensus on securing the border to the fact that Democrats came to look on illegal immigrants as much-needed Democrat voters. For whatever reason, a decade later these same Democratic leaders were lambasting President Trump’s border wall policy as “immoral and ineffective,” even “racist,” and fiercely opposing any and every serious proposal aimed at enforcing immigration law.
***
When I say that the Biden administration methodically undid every meaningful border security policy that it inherited, what specifically do I mean? I’ve mentioned the border wall. And it is a demonstrable fact that border walls, placed in strategic locations, act as effective impediments and improve the ability of law enforcement to drive and dictate the behavior of criminal organizations rather than being driven and dictated to themselves. One of the most ridiculous criticisms I’ve heard is that the wall is “a fourteenth century solution for a twenty-first century problem.” The same could be said of the wheel, which also still works pretty well.
In any case, the first bullet point of President Biden’s budget for the Department of Homeland Security this year trumpets the fact that not a cent will go towards the construction of border walls.
Yet despite the amount of intense debate the border wall engendered, it was not the only or even the most important border security measure instituted under the Trump administration. Let me outline two other key game changers.
Prior to Trump’s presidency, a combination of three things had the effect of forcing the Department of Homeland Security to institute a “catch and release” policy for illegal immigrants: the Trafficking Victims Protection Reauthorization Act of 2008, which mandated that the U.S. detain all unaccompanied minors from non-contiguous countries (countries other than Mexico and Canada); Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals, an executive policy adopted in 2012 to allow some of the migrants brought into the country illegally as children to receive a renewable deferred action from deportation; and the Flores Settlement Agreement, a 1997 court decree that was reinterpreted in 2015 to prevent the U.S. from detaining migrant families and unaccompanied minors for more than 20 days. In addition to catch and release, these things combined to bring about a demographic shift in illegal immigration that was immediately exploited by smuggling organizations—a shift from the influx of predominantly single adult males from Mexico to an explosive influx of families and unaccompanied minors from far and wide, and particularly from Central America. By 2016, the message had been sent and received that America’s southern border was wide open.
In response to this, the Trump administration negotiated the Migrant Protection Protocol, a bilateral agreement with Mexico more commonly known as the Remain in Mexico Program. Under this agreement, people illegally entering or being smuggled into the U.S. with a minor would no longer be able to stay simply by asking for asylum. It was chiefly this Remain in Mexico Program that ended catch and release, removing the greatest incentive for people to try to enter the U.S. illegally.
Prior to the full implementation of the Remain in Mexico Program—at the height of the 2019 border crisis when Department of Homeland Security facilities were overwhelmed—the Flores Settlement Agreement had forced Border Patrol to release illegal alien families, often just hours after they were apprehended. In May of that year, Customs and Border Protection were apprehending over 5,000 illegals per day. After full implementation of Remain in Mexico, illegals who applied for asylum were returned to Mexico to await their hearings. This resulted in a dramatic reduction in the flow of illegal immigrants, especially of families and unaccompanied minors. By February 2020, we had seen a 75 percent reduction in families attempting to enter illegally. Many chose to return home—either on their own or with the assistance of the Mexican government—since catch and release was no longer in effect. It was a big victory for the rule of law.
The current out-of-control surge at the border stems chiefly from the fact that the Biden administration acted quickly to halt the Remain in Mexico Program and return to catch and release. In response to a lawsuit brought by the Texas Attorney General, a federal judge has recently ruled that Remain in Mexico must be reinstated, and the U.S. Supreme Court has refused to overturn that ruling. How this will play out remains to be seen.
Another game-changing development under the Trump administration was a series of Asylum Cooperative Agreements made between the U.S. and the Central American countries of Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador. These Asylum Cooperative Agreements codified accepted international practices governing asylum seekers, which encourage migrants to seek relief from the first safe country able to assist them. Migrants from these countries seeking asylum in the U.S. were traversing thousands of miles, across multiple countries, and our policies were encouraging that. The Agreements not only encouraged migrants to obtain immediate assistance closer to home, they also served as a deterrent to those with fraudulent claims.
Less than three weeks after President Biden took office, Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced that “in line with the President’s vision” the U.S. had suspended, and was in the process of terminating, the Asylum Cooperative Agreements with Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador. In the same announcement, Blinken said that the new U.S. approach to the problem of migration from these countries would be to address the “root causes” of that migration—especially economic underdevelopment and poverty, although, oddly enough, climate change has been mentioned as a root cause as well.
We are hearing more and more subsequently about root causes—especially from Vice President Harris, who President Biden charged with developing a “Root Causes Strategy.” But what we are hearing is bunk. The fact is that when the U.S. opens its borders—which is what it amounts to when we return to a catch and release policy—illegal immigrants flock to the U.S. That’s the root cause of the crisis on our southern border. Compare the numbers in April of last year to those of this April: there was a 900 percent increase in illegal immigration. The economic conditions in Central America didn’t markedly change during that period. The climate didn’t markedly change. Our policies changed! That’s the root cause.
There is a second important point to make in this regard. The basic legal premise of asylum is that the migrant must have a valid claim to be the victim of persecution in his or her home country due to race, religion, nationality, political affiliation, or membership in a protected class. Under current law, a desire to improve one’s economic status is not a valid asylum claim. If it were, the overwhelming majority of people in the world would have a valid claim to seek asylum here. Open borders advocates, including those in the Biden administration who harp on root causes, cultivate the myth that a desire for economic betterment is a valid reason by itself to seek asylum. That would require a radical change in U.S. law that I don’t think the American people would accept.
***
The incoming Biden team received exhaustive briefings on the situation at the border and was warned about the consequences of undoing the security policies they inherited. They were told clearly that Border Patrol stations didn’t have adequate capacity to handle the surge of illegal immigrants that would follow a reversal of policy; they were told clearly that the Department of Health and Human Services did not have the detention capacity to handle it. They were told that smuggling organizations and other criminal groups would exploit a return to catch and release.
Despite this, they rushed to dismantle the entire system. And with the results becoming evident to the public, they resorted to deception. I’ve served in federal law enforcement in various capacities for more than 35 years, under six different administrations. And while I’ve become numb to the spin and misdirection that is commonplace in Washington, I have never seen as blatant a disinformation campaign as this one.
Initially, this campaign involved outright denial: “Our message has been straightforward—the border is closed,” said Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas on March 21, in the midst of a surge across the border of families and unaccompanied minors. There was also deflection: Mayorkas blamed the surge on the Trump administration, which he claimed had “torn down” the “entire [immigration] system” that had been in place. This took a lot of gall, given that the surge was so obviously a direct response to the termination of Trump’s Remain in Mexico Program and Asylum Cooperative Agreements and the revival of catch and release.
We were also treated to a fictitious narrative according to which the surge was the reflection of seasonal trends. A “significant increase” in migration “happens every year” in the winter months, President Biden claimed at his first presidential press conference, since that is when migrants “can travel with the least likelihood of dying on the way.” The problem is that this year’s winter numbers dwarfed those of 2020—not to mention the fact that the surge has continued unabated into the spring and summer. The June apprehension number exceeded 180,000, and in July it exceeded 210,000. Year-to-date apprehensions are over one million, including more than 100,000 unaccompanied minors—a 444 percent year-to-year increase.
At the point when the administration could no longer deny the dangerously overcrowded conditions at Border Patrol facilities, some operating at more than 400 percent capacity, it adopted a shell game strategy, first moving migrants into newly-constructed facilities and then surreptitiously flying families and unaccompanied minors to cities throughout the U.S. The point of this ongoing shell game is not to stem the flow of illegal immigrants into our country, but to improve the political “optics” of the crisis.
***
Make no mistake, criminal organizations—which are adept at exploiting weak and ambiguous U.S. immigration policies—are paying close attention to what’s happening and will adapt their tactics and procedures accordingly. The commonsense reality is that by incentivizing and facilitating illegal immigration, the Biden administration is making it easier for drugs to pour into the U.S., for human trafficking to expand, and for criminal aliens to infiltrate our society. Simply consider that between 40 and 50 percent of Border Patrol and other Customs and Border Protection enforcement resources have been pulled off the front lines to provide humanitarian aid, leaving large areas of the border unmonitored and unsecured.
It is estimated that the number of “got aways”—not the illegal immigrants being relocated around the country, but those who have successfully entered undetected—already surpasses 260,000, more than the population of the city of Arlington, Virginia. And we can safely assume that not all of them are good upstanding people.
In the past decade, the Border Patrol has apprehended tens of thousands of criminal aliens and gang members. It is estimated that just this year, the Border Patrol has apprehended 8,000 criminal aliens—including 46 murderers, 393 sex offenders, and 880 assailants. Over the July 4 weekend, it apprehended several members of MS-13, the most violent transnational gang operating in the U.S. It also recently apprehended two Yemeni nationals who were listed on the U.S. Terrorist Screening Database. In 2020, ICE made more than 100,000 arrests, with 90 percent of those arrested having a criminal conviction or pending criminal charges.
In addition to utilizing illegal immigration as a distraction technique, smuggling organizations often force migrants to carry drugs across the border as a means of payment. And they use their profits from human smuggling activities to finance increasingly more sophisticated drug smuggling techniques that involve tunnels, drones, ultra-light aircraft, and maritime operations. So far this year, Customs and Border Protection assets have participated in the seizure of more than 600,000 pounds of drugs. Fentanyl seizures have skyrocketed in 2021, with more than 6,000 pounds being seized by Border Patrol and Customs and Border Protection—a 300 percent increase over this time last year.
Let me end by saying something about what is bureaucratically called the 287(g) program—it is called that because it was established in Section 287(g) of the Immigration and Nationality Act in 1996. This is the program that makes it possible for local law enforcement to work with ICE in removing illegal criminal aliens. A majority of Americans oppose the idea of so-called sanctuary cities, which are disastrous in terms of public safety. What they might not realize is that every city is now threatened with becoming a sanctuary city. Why? Because the Biden administration has effectively shut down ICE. So today, for instance, a sheriff’s department can arrest a known gang member who is in the U.S. illegally for a non-violent felony such as burglary or drunk driving. But if that sheriff calls ICE, he will be told that is not a priority and that he should release the criminal gang member back into the community.
Thomas Feeley—until recently the director of ICE in New York State—resigned from ICE out of frustration that the Biden administration is, in his words, “doing everything [it] can to cripple [enforcement and removal operations].” In an interview following his resignation, Feeley related an incident where he was told to release an illegal immigrant who was a convicted arsonist. The rationale for releasing the illegal was that he hadn’t been arrested in the past ten years. He hadn’t been arrested, Feeley pointed out, because he had been in prison during that period. But that didn’t matter. He was released into the community anyway.
***
In conclusion, it is simply common sense to view border security as national security. If you make this point today, you risk being called a racist or worse. But it needs to be said over and over until we fight our way back to the point where we have a bipartisan consensus that immigration laws should be enforced. This is not going to be easy. Even as the acting commissioner of Customs and Border Protection, I had my official government Twitter account blocked prior to the 2020 election for posting a photograph of the border wall and explaining that it is an integral part of effective border security. The powers-that-be eventually reversed this decision, but it is an indication of what the American people—who overwhelmingly support border security—are up against.
What we need is widespread active public involvement. Illegal immigration, border security, the erosion of the rule of law, and the loss of our nation’s sovereignty are interconnected, and should be debated as important issues in local and state politics as well as national. When I was the chief of U.S. Border Patrol in the Obama administration, Secretary of Homeland Security Jeh Johnson told us that 1,000 illegal immigrants a day is a bad day. Today that number is approaching 7,000, and nothing is being done about it. This can’t be allowed to continue. A country that cannot control its borders is not a country, and I’m sad to say that we are facing that eventuality.
A Few Thousand Javelins Could Seriously Impact/Sink Putin’s Invasion Plans! (The article suggests there are only a few available, however, I believe there are several 1000 available in the theater)
Could Javelin Missiles Tip a War With Russia in Ukraine’s Favor?
The FGM-148 Javelin is a great anti-tank missile, but there may be too few of them.
BY KYLE MIZOKAMI
DEC 10, 2021
ukrainian servicemen are seen holding javelin antitankSOPA IMAGESGETTY IMAGES
A major weapon in Ukraine’s arsenal is the American-made Javelin missile.
Javelin was designed to destroy Russian tanks, and is by all accounts an excellent weapon.
Ukraine has far too few Javelins for the weapon to make a difference on the battlefield.
The American-made Javelin anti-tank missile has recently appeared in the news as one possible way Ukraine might defend itself from a Russian ground assault.
Although the missiles are highly effective against the kinds of main battle tanks fielded by the Russian Ground Forces, Ukraine has purchased too few to make much of an impact on the battlefield. The missiles, and their launch teams, would also be vulnerable to Russia’s battlefield specialty: artillery.
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The FGM-148 Javelin anti-tank missile was introduced in the 1990s as a replacement for the M-47 Dragon in U.S. Army and Marine Corps service. The Javelin was a significant upgrade over the Dragon, featuring twice the range, an improved warhead, shorter time to target, and the ability to climb sharply and then strike a tank from above, punching through the thin overhead armor.
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Importantly for the missile crews, Javelin is an infra-red guided “fire and forget” weapon, meaning the gunner can locate a tank, lock onto a target, fire, and then run away to safety. Javelin is in use with armies worldwide, including Australia, France, Norway, Taiwan, and Ukraine.
president poroshenko visits testing grounds as ukrainian military test javelin missile systems
US-supplied Javelin anti-tank missile systems are tested by Ukrainian military at undisclosed testing grounds.
MIKHAIL PALINCHAKGETTY IMAGES
The U.S. has sold Ukraine Javelin missiles twice. The first sale in 2018 was for 210 missiles and 37 command launch units (CLUs), for an estimated cost of $47 million. A second sale involved 10 additional CLUs and 150 missiles.
“Ukraine’s twenty-eight combat battalions would need about 450 antitank weapons, based on U.S. practice,” Mark Cancian, a retired U.S. Marine Corps Colonel and analyst with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told Popular Mechanics. “(Ukraine) could likely use a lot more anti-tank weapons. During the Cold War, the U.S. strategy to offset the large numbers of Soviet tanks was to proliferate anti-tank weapons on the battlefield.”
In other words, Ukraine has only enough Javelins to equip three of twenty-eight battalions, though Cancian said that it does have stocks of older anti-tank missiles from the Cold War era. Ukraine’s army also has an unknown number of locally produced Skif laser-guided anti-tank missiles. Furthermore, three battalions are only enough troops to cover about seven miles of front line—while Ukraine’s border with Russia is 1,400 miles long. Russian intelligence could merely identify Ukrainian units outfitted with Javelins and then have tank and mechanized infantry forces skirt around them.
russian army holds artillery training exercise in kemerovo region
2A65 Msta-B towed howitzers fire during a military exercise by an artillery unit of Russian Armed Force’s Central Military District at Yurginsky military training ground, August 2021.
KIRILL KUKHMARGETTY IMAGES
Or it could pound them into oblivion. Another problem with the Javelin is that launch teams are susceptible to artillery fire—a Russian specialty. Javelins are typically carried on foot by infantry or mounted in light armored vehicles, modes of transport that lack the heavy armor protection of tanks. In July 2014, a Russian artillery strike on Ukrainian forces at Zelenopillya, preceded by reconnaissance drones and cyberattacks, resulted in, “thirty Ukrainian soldiers dead, hundreds more wounded, and over two battalions’ worth of combat vehicles destroyed.”
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In the event of a major attack by the Russian Ground Forces, “made in the USA” Javelin missiles would likely only have a secondary role. It’s a great missile, but in current numbers is just not a threat to Russia’s armored spearheads. The real threat to an invasion force are the thousands of other, more local missiles, old and new, in Ukraine’s arsenal.
KYLE MIZOKAMI
Writer on Defense and Security issues, lives in San Francisco.
If Russia Strikes Ukraine, Here's How the Pentagon Could Bring the Heat!
This could be the U.S. military's playbook for a war in Eastern Europe.
BY KYLE MIZOKAMI
DEC 8, 2021
russian army t72 b3m tanks are seen during the annual armySOPA IMAGESGETTY IMAGES
U.S. intelligence officials now believe that Russia's military buildup on its border with Ukraine is a prelude to attack.
While an attack is not certain, the stockpiling of forces would allow Moscow to stage a limited invasion of its rival.
The Pentagon has a range of options to deal with a potential conflict, from sending Ukraine intelligence data, to deploying U.S. troops to Eastern Europe.
Following a virtual summit on Tuesday between U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin, Washington believes that the Kremlin is preparing to attack its neighbor, Ukraine, and may do so as early as January. The leaders' meeting—which seemed mostly unproductive—centered on Russia's massing of up to 175,000 troops on Ukraine's border, and what the U.S. may (or may not) do about it.
Washington has a range of options to deter Moscow, from providing Kiev with key intelligence, to sending troops, aircraft, and ships to Europe. Yet as much as Putin understands the use of force, it may ultimately be the economic sanctions that Biden foreshadowed in their virtual meeting that will prompt Russia to reconsider its bad neighbor policy. If it does come down to a physical conflict—or perhaps even war—the U.S. has a wide range of options to deal with Russia, though.
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In late November, Bloomberg reported that U.S. intelligence officers had briefed its NATO allies about a Russian massing of ground forces. The buildup, along Russia's border with its neighbor Ukraine, consisted of about 50 battalion tactical groups, or about the equivalent of five divisions of combat troops. Battalion tactical groups (BTGs) are self-contained combat groups consisting of armor, motorized rifle, artillery, and air defense forces capable of independent operations. Intelligence sources believe that the buildup ultimately could consist of about 100 BTGs, or about 175,000 troops. In August, Russian state media reported that the entire Russian Ground Forces fielded "about" 170 BTGs.
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russia holds amphibious landing exercise
The Saratov large landing ship and Mil Mi-8AMTSh helicopters take part in an exercise in amphibious landing, Crimea, October 2021. Ukraine
SERGEI MALGAVKOGETTY IMAGES
The U.S. and NATO still don't know what Putin truly intends to do with his assembled armies, but during the Tuesday videoconference with President Biden, he said that Russia will not attack. Still, the Kremlin is paranoid about eastward NATO expansion, and wants guarantees that member nations will not deploy weapons near Russia, per the BBC. Those are negotiations that the U.S. and NATO may not be interested in, however.
Meanwhile, Putin could be attempting to intimidate Ukraine and its people, hoping they would elect a government more bent on Russian appeasement, if not with a pro-Russian bent. Or, he might be planning limited attacks to seize small tracts of Ukrainian territory. In the worst-case-scenario, Russia might even stage an all-out attack on Ukraine, though Putin seems to understand it would be risky to get himself dragged into an Iraq-style guerrilla war with a country the size of Texas.
How Could the U.S. Military Respond to Conflict in Ukraine?
rq 4 global hawk
The RQ-4 Global Hawk can survey an area the size of Illinois in 24 hours, making it an important surveillance tool in the U.S. arsenal.
GETTY IMAGESGETTY IMAGES
The first (and arguably most important) tactic is to increase surveillance of Russian forces to figure out what they're up to. The U.S. Army could redeploy RC-12 Guardrail spy aircraft, which typically operate from the Baltic states to monitor Russian communications in and around Kaliningrad (a Russian province between between Poland and Lithuania), to keep watch over the Russian-Ukrainian border.
Meanwhile, the Air Force could increase surveillance missions with RQ-4 Global Hawk drones. Those operations typically begin in Sicily and involve the giant 737-sized drones flying eastward over Ukraine and the Black Sea, while looking into Russia itself. Special operations forces might engage on the ground in Ukraine, probing Russian ground forces and collecting information.
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If the U.S. detects that Russia is preparing for imminent attack in the coming weeks, there are options that could dissuade it from doing so, all while laying the groundwork for a more forceful response. Activating the U.S. Military Sealift Command fleet—the force that would transport tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, and other heavy equipment across the Atlantic—would send a strong signal that the Pentagon is prepared to send ground forces to Europe. (The sealift fleet is also old, and the earlier it's activated, the better.)
m2a3
A M2A3 Bradley fighting vehicle with 1st Armored Brigade Combat Team, 1st Infantry Division, fires a 25-millimeter tracer round during an integrated night live-fire exercise for Winter Shield 2021 at Camp Ādaži, Ādaži, Latvia, November 25, 2021.
U.S. ARMY PHOTO BY SPC. MICHAEL BAUMBERGER/DVIDS
The Army could also redeploy existing forces in Europe to prepare to counter a Russian buildup. The 1st Armored Brigade Combat Team, 1st Infantry Division is in Europe, training with NATO and other European allies, but many of its subunits are widely separated across the continent. Reforming the brigade in eastern Poland would create a potent, on-the- ground intervention force. Other troops that could mass in Poland include the 2nd Cavalry Regiment in Germany and the 173rd Airborne Brigade in Italy. Activating National Guard combat units—like Mississippi's 30th Armored Brigade Combat Team and the Texas Army National Guard's 36th Infantry Division—would send a signal that the U.S. is preparing for an extended crisis, even disrupting the lives of reservists.
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Naturally, the Navy would also get in on the action. U.S. aircraft carrier assets are thin right now, with just one carrier operating between the East Coast and the Philippine Sea. The USS Harry S. Truman Carrier Strike Group departed Norfolk, Virginia on November 30 for a regularly scheduled deployment. Truman and her escorts will likely end up off Europe in the coming weeks, and moving the strike group into the Baltic Sea would enable her strike fighters and Tomahawk cruise missiles to threaten Russian forces massing against northern Ukraine. Another option is to send one or more Ohio-class guided-missile submarines to Europe, making visible appearances in local ports. Each is equipped with up to 154 Tomahawk cruise missiles.
b 1b craft
Originally designed as a low-altitude penetrator, the B-1B is now capable of attacking up to two dozen targets from as far as 575 miles away.
ETHAN MILLERGETTY IMAGES
The Air Force, with its stealth fighters and long-range cruise missiles, might well be the most decisive arm. Fighters and bombers, including F-22 Raptors, F-35 Joint Strike Fighters, and F-15E Strike Eagles could cross the Atlantic and touch down at bases in NATO countries such as Poland and Romania, both of which share a border with Ukraine. U.S. Strategic Command might forward-deploy bombers, laden with cruise missiles, to bases in the United Kingdom. American military planners would likely elect to send B-1B Lancer bombers due to their ability to carry up to 24 Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles at a time. A force of just ten B-1Bs, armed with JASSM cruise missiles, can strike up to 240 separate targets, devastating the Russian military's ability to sustain an invasion force. B-1Bs also have the benefit of being incapable of carrying nuclear weapons, reassuring Moscow that Washington isn't deploying nuclear arms to Europe. Yet.
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The Pentagon's capabilities are so vast that these are just some possible military options. Yet as much as the Pentagon can do, nothing would hit Putin as hard as economic sanctions. Testimony in the U.S. Senate in 2017 claimed that Putin himself had a net worth of $200 billion at the time—making him one one of richest men in the world. The dominance of Western financial institutions and the interconnected nature of the global economy makes his fortune, and those of his allies, vulnerable to economic sanctions. But are threats of military action and sanctions enough to keep Russia out of Ukraine? Only Putin could tell you.
KYLE MIZOKAMI
Writer on Defense and Security issues, lives in San Francisco.
Russia aggression, … Ukraine, NATO & United States…in war possible?
Russia and Ukraine Are Dangerously Close to War. That Puts the U.S. in a Bind
Inaction could embolden Moscow, but will the U.S. really go to war with another nuclear power?
BY KYLE MIZOKAMI
DEC 6, 2021
russian soldier in gas maskGAVRIIL GRIGOROVGETTY IMAGES
Recent troop movements in western Russia point to the possibility of war with Ukraine.
The two countries have centuries' worth of tensioned of history, with recent strains exacerbated by an expansionist Russia.
New fighting could drag the U.S. (and the rest of NATO) into the conflict, though not all NATO countries are enthusiastic about standing up to Russian aggression.
U.S. intelligence officials recently warned NATO allies that Russian military forces are massing up to 175,000 troops on Ukraine's border—and could be in a position to invade that country by late January.
If true, this would mark the second round of fighting between the two neighboring countries, and the second time in eight years that Russia has invaded Ukraine. Unlike last time, this new conflict could draw in the United States and elements of NATO, pitting nuclear-armed powers against one another. Here's everything we know about the possibility of a war between Russia and Ukraine.
Why Does Russia Want to Invade Ukraine?
After Russia, Ukraine is the second largest country in Europe by area, and the two share a land border. Historically, Ukraine made up a major part of the territory inhabited by the greater Rus people (ancients who gave their name to Russia and Belarus); it was politically dominant among the Rus before the Mongol Empire invaded it in the 13th century. The territory never fully recovered, and its neighbors, including a Moscow-centered Russia, continually divided up the land until the early 20th century. Although Ukraine enjoyed a brief stint of independence between 1918 and 1920, it subsequently joined the Soviet Union, which collapsed in 1991. Ukraine has had full political independence ever since.
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However, Ukrainian independence has never sat well with Russia, and that has held true under the reign of President Vladimir Putin. A history of foreign invasions, from the Mongols to Nazi Germany, has caused many in Russia to desire a wall of buffer states, including Ukraine, surrounding the country. NATO's expansion eastward in the 1990s and 2000s to include countries like Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia stoked Russian paranoia about foreign encroachment. Despite NATO's purpose as a defensive alliance, many across Russia view it as a military organization dominated by the United States, which has invaded foreign countries (Afghanistan, Iraq) twice in the last 20 years.
Ukrainian sovereignty is also a sore point for those in Russia, particularly Putin, who came up during the reign of the Soviet Union and remember a time when the USSR was a superpower. While the U.S. and NATO primarily see Ukrainian independence as a net positive for the Ukrainian people. Meanwhile, Moscow sees it as a rejection of a union between ex-Soviet states; Under this zero-sum thinking, Ukraine's sovereignty is a win for the United States and NATO.
What Happened Last Time Russia Invaded Ukraine?
crimea under russian control
Russian special forces storm the Ukrainian Belbek Airbase on March 22, 2014 near Sevastopol, Crimea.
EPSILONGETTY IMAGES
Crimea, a peninsula along the northern coast of the Black Sea, had long been a part of Russia, but the Soviet Union transferred it to Ukraine in 1954. This was not a big deal as long as the Soviet Union existed, as it was about the same as the U.S. federal government transferring a swath of land from California to Nevada. But once the two countries were independent, however, Crimea proved strategically important for Russia's control of the Black Sea.
In 2014, things came to a head. Russian marines, paratroopers, and Spetsnaz special forces invaded and captured the Crimea region of Ukraine with hardly any fighting. At the same time, Russia-backed proxy forces attacked Ukraine in the country's Donbas region, seeking to break it off from Ukraine and join it to Russia. The unofficial war is still ongoing, with occasional flare-ups of violence along the Russia-Ukraine border.
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The response from the United States and NATO has been tepid. The annexation of Crimea, and the use of proxies in the Donbas, were met with economic sanctions and minor military aid to Ukraine, though not nearly enough to re-equip the Ukrainian ground forces in any meaningful way.
Now, a broader concern has emerged: failure to inflict sufficient punishment on Russia for its aggression has only emboldened it (and Putin in particular). Moscow reasons that it can outlast any repercussions, short of war, with the West.
What Kind of Military Action Could Russia Take Against Ukraine?
ukraine
Russian armored vehicles drive on the road between Simferopol and Sevastopol on March 17, 2014.
VIKTOR DRACHEVGETTY IMAGES
On November 19, the New York Times reported that U.S. intelligence officials had warned NATO allies that Russia was preparing for action, moving forces westward toward the border with Ukraine. The U.S. believes Russia has been redeploying Russian Ground Forces amounting to about nine or ten combat divisions, or about as many divisions in the active-duty U.S. Army. The activity began in October, and will be complete by late January or early February.
Interestingly, Russian steel and oil companies began complaining about a shortage of rail transport that also began in October—perhaps due to high levels of military transport.
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What kind of military action could Russia take against Ukraine? Unlike in 2014, when Russia used proxies and its own military personnel, stripped of their identification, a new conflict would see direct, open conflict between the two countries. The 90 or more battalion tactical groups of the Russian Ground Forces, bolstered with tanks, artillery, and air support, would be far too large to hide their identities.
If it does come to all-out war, Russia will likely only use a fraction of its assembled combat power, quickly seizing a limited amount of Ukrainian territory. Ukraine is too large to completely occupy, and the longer a conflict drags on, the more likely a NATO military response will become. The occupation of Ukraine, to satisfy Putin's appetite for expansion, is merely part of Russia's goal; The rest is about cowing the country into political submission to intimidate NATO.
How Would the U.S. and NATO Respond to Russia Invading Ukraine?
bundeswehr receives first leopard 2 a7v battle tanks
German Army Leopard 2 A7V tanks. If war breaks out in Ukraine, these tanks probably won’t head East.
JENS SCHLUETERGETTY IMAGES
Would NATO respond militarily? Jens Stoltenberg, secretary general of NATO, has warned member states that they must "expect the worst," while stating that Russia would "pay a high price" for attacking Ukraine. Many NATO countries—especially small, formerly Soviet states such as Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia, as well as former captive Warsaw Pact nations—back military involvement in Ukraine, reasoning that they could be next. Germany, however, has all but signaled it would not use military force against Russia, which supplies it, and much of the rest of Europe, with natural gas in the winter. Other countries closer to the Atlantic than the Black Sea might well reason that, with no direct stake in a Russian-Ukrainian war, there is no reason to start a wider one.
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If Russia attacks Ukraine, it will be over quickly, and there won't be much NATO can do about it. There are no NATO combat troops in Ukraine, and deploying them in sufficient numbers to resist the Russian Army would take weeks. By the time NATO cobbles together a credible military force, Russia will sue for peace, demanding a ceasefire.
A major problem is the potential for Putin to miscalculate. If Putin aims for a larger piece of Ukraine, and there is significant resistance, NATO forces could end up opposing him, suddenly giving him a bigger war than even he wanted. If Putin attacks NATO forces directly, Article 5 of the Atlantic Charter, NATO's founding document, would require all NATO countries to respond militarily. Suddenly, Russia would be looking at a war with virtually all of Europe.
multinational military exercises "balkan sentinel 21"
A NATO intervention in Ukraine would largely fall on the U.S. armed forces to provide the bulk of troops and equipment.
ANADOLU AGENCYGETTY IMAGES
Putin is already laying the groundwork for freezing out NATO from the equation. Russia broke diplomatic ties with the alliance in October, then complained that Brussels had "destroyed all mechanisms for dialogue" that could de-escalate the crisis. The Russian President has also warned that NATO long-range missiles in Ukraine would be a "red line" that would force Russia to act. Putin hinted that the short flight time of tactical missiles (potentially with nuclear warheads) from Ukraine to Moscow would force him to preemptively attack.
It's quite possible that Russian military deployments are merely posturing meant to frighten Moscow's enemies; Maybe Putin isn't even contemplating invasion. But it's not like Russia hasn't attacked Ukraine before. NATO is split: some countries are warning that inaction will further embolden Russia, while others have signaled they won't consider military action. If push comes to shove, will the United States really go to war with another nuclear power? Let's hope Putin has other plans this winter and we never have to find out.
Friday, December 10, 2021
Thursday, December 9, 2021
Every day it becomes quiet clear that Putin is playing Chess while Biden is struggling to play checkers! The Biden Regime is is hopelessly outclassed by the majority of its opponents on the world stage!
Putin outsmarts Biden with ace up sleeve to deliver 'chokehold' before Ukraine invasion
Jacob Paul
Russia will reportedly increase the volumes of gas supplies to the bloc in accordance with requests, according to its ambassador to Hungary, Yevgeny Stanislavov. It comes after the leaders met to discuss a range of issues, from the gas crisis to the reported build-up of Russian troops at the Ukraine-Russia border. Mr Stanislavov said: "Gazprom has increased supplies to Europe by 10 percent this year, whereas the total increase in supplies of the Russian gas to the continent equals 15 percent, including liquified natural gas.
"There has been not a single rejection."
It comes as tension with the West escalated after Mr Putin reportedly slashed the volumes of gas transiting into Europe, while also sparking panic as fears of an imminent invasion of Ukraine appears to be on the cards.
Mr Putin was accused of tightening gas supplies in Europe in the hope to speed up certification of his new Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which will transit gas from Russia into Germany, bypassing Poland and Ukraine.
The move exposed Mr Putin's tight grip on the European energy market and led to accusations that the Russian President uses gas as a "geopolitical weapon" rather than a commodity.
But now that Mr Putin has reportedly agreed to boost gas supplies to Europe, some say the pipeline can be used as leverage against Russia as Mr Biden threatens to scrap Nord Stream 2.
But Olexander Scherba, a chief advisor at Ukraine gas giant Naftogaz and former diplomat is not so convinced.
He told Express.co.uk: "The pipeline connecting Russia and the West running through Ukraine was a major factor stopping Putin from undertaking any full-blown aggression so far.
"If this pipeline for some reason becomes unnecessary or expandable, it is one reason less for Putin to be reasonable.
"But also, Putin knows for sure if he attacks then Nord Stream 2 will be shut down, but if it is operational Putin can get Ukraine in an energy chokehold.
"It would be like saving someone from a shooting squad but then right away giving someone to a strangler.
"One has to be cautious about being overly optimistic about the pressure being applied to Putin so far, maybe it is not enough."
Brandon Weichert, a geopolitical analyst and author of Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, also believes that using the pipeline as leverage may not be the wisest tactic.
READ MORE: Greece blows top at EU and warns Russia gas reliance is 'unavoidable'
He told Express.co.uk:" Yes. The West can use the pipeline as leverage. But to what end? Ultimately, Germany and the rest of Europe need that gas flowing as soon as possible.
"Beyond that, though, sanctioning the pipeline might actually put the Putin regime in a use-it-or-lose-it mentality when it comes to taking what they want in Ukraine.
"Beyond a temporary halt of the pipeline, though, my personal opinion is that the Germans will not permanently scrap the pipeline."
While Mr Biden has called for abandoning the project altogether, Germany's new chancellor Olaf Sholz has also warned of "consequences" if Russia decides to invade Ukraine.
When asked by Welt television whether Nord Stream 2 could be used as leverage, Mr Sholz said: "We have a very clear view - we want everyone to respect the integrity of borders.
"Everyone understands that there will be consequences if that doesn't happen, but the thing is to do everything to make sure they remain unbreached."
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Professor Tracey German, from Kings College London, does not think that the pipeline can be used as leverage at all.
She told Express.co.uk: "Not sure I fully agree with US national security adviser Jake Sullivan who said the fact that gas was not yet flowing through Nord Stream 2 created leverage for the West over Putin."
Prof German said that it is more the other way round, with Gazprom and Russia in fact having leverage over Europe.
We have seen following the latest announcement that Russia will boost supplies, if it also has the power to cut that off again, arguably what it reveals is that Europe needs Russia's gas and is in no position to use gas as "leverage" over Russia.
Prof German said: "Gazprom and Russia still have considerable leverage over Europe.
"Russia is happy to exploit vulnerabilities, such as over-reliance on it as a supplier of natural gas, to achieve its own objectives, but it did not necessarily create these vulnerabilities.
"Europe has long been aware of the dangers of over-reliance on a single supplier such as Russia, but, despite a series of wake-up calls that prompted the EU to re-assess both its energy and foreign policies in an attempt to further diversify their sources to ensure the security of supply and prevent over-reliance on any one fuel or any one country.
"Russia has developed new pipelines such as TurkStream and now NordStream 2, which undermine this aim of importing non-Russian sources of gas.
"In 2020 Russian gas giant Gazprom exported 174.9 Billion cubic metres of gas to Europe, down from the record highs of around 200 Bcm in 2018 and 2019 - despite diplomatic tensions and the EU's long-running objective to reduce its dependence on Russia."
Tuesday, December 7, 2021
Yes, Today’s Pearl Harbor Day! However, we are Again Under Attack…by Enemies Within!!!
The Marxist Socialist Democrats say it's only a couple Trillion $$$$$$$, actually 5T++++ $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
Monday, December 6, 2021
Biden’s Obvious Weakness & Afghan Humiliation has Emboldened China & other American Enemies Across the Globe!
‘Setting Off Alarm Bells’: U.S. Officials Scramble As China Pushes To Build Atlantic Military Base
By Ryan Saavedra
•
Dec 6, 2021 DailyWire.com
Chinese tanks parade at the end of the day of the Vostok-2018 (East-2018) military drills at Tsugol training ground not far from the borders with China and Mongolia in Siberia, on September 13, 2018.
MLADEN ANTONOV / AFP via Getty Images
Communist China has officials in the Biden administration scrambling as classified U.S. intelligence reportedly shows that China is pushing to build a military base on the Atlantic Ocean, which poses a major threat to U.S. national security.
“Classified American intelligence reports suggest China intends to establish its first permanent military presence on the Atlantic Ocean in the tiny Central African country of Equatorial Guinea,” The Wall Street Journal reported. “[U.S. officials] said the reports raise the prospect that Chinese warships would be able to rearm and refit opposite the East Coast of the U.S.—a threat that is setting off alarm bells at the White House and Pentagon.”
A top U.S. official reportedly visited Equatorial Guinea this fall to push the nation’s leaders to reject China’s overtures as the communist nation ramps up its aggression in the face of a weak and incompetent U.S. administration that has repeatedly botched major foreign policy decisions from Afghanistan to dealing with allies to delisting terrorist organizations.
The Journal added:
The great-power skirmishing over a country that rarely draws outside attention reflects the rising tensions between Washington and Beijing. The two countries are sparring over the status of Taiwan, China’s testing of a hypersonic missile, the origins of the Covid-19 pandemic and other issues.
World-wide, the U.S. finds itself maneuvering to try to block China from projecting its military power from new overseas bases, from Cambodia to the United Arab Emirates.
In Equatorial Guinea, the Chinese likely have an eye on Bata, according to a U.S. official. Bata already has a Chinese-built deep-water commercial port on the Gulf of Guinea, and excellent highways link the city to Gabon and the interior of Central Africa.
Gen. Stephen Townsend, commander of U.S. Africa Command, told the U.S. Senate earlier this year that the “most significant threat” from China could pose to U.S. national security would be “a militarily useful naval facility on the Atlantic coast of Africa.”
“By militarily useful I mean something more than a place that they can make port calls and get gas and groceries,” he said. “I’m talking about a port where they can rearm with munitions and repair naval vessels.”
The report said that not only has the Biden administration sought to portray that aligning itself with China would be a mistake, but they have also tried to warm relations with the small African nation.
The report added:
Beijing set up its first overseas military base in 2017 in Djibouti, on the opposite side of the continent. The former French colony looks onto the Bab-el-Mandeb strait, a strategic chokepoint for shipping traffic transiting the Suez Canal. The Chinese facility has a pier capable of docking an aircraft carrier and nuclear submarines, according to U.S. Africa Command.
The base is 6 miles from the largest American base in Africa, Camp Lemonnier, home to 4,500 U.S. troops.
“China doesn’t just build a military base like the U.S.,” said Paul Nantulya, research associate at the Pentagon-funded Africa Center for Strategic Studies. “The Chinese model is very, very different. It combines civilian as well as security elements.”
Sunday, December 5, 2021
Sorry, Everyone, Hamas is Still a Terrorist Group by Khaled Abu Toameh • December 5, 2021 at 5:00 am
First, the document reportedly depicting Hamas as a moderate group that accepts the "two-state solution" is a bluff intended to dupe the international community.
As Mashaal himself explained, even if Hamas accepts a Palestinian state in the West Bank, Gaza Strip and east Jerusalem, that does not mean that it would ever recognize Israel's right to exist.
Second, Hamas has not renounced violence and terrorism. In fact, it intends to continue the "resistance" and jihad (holy war) against Israel after the establishment of the Palestinian state with the purpose of "liberating all of Palestine."
Third, the new document did not cancel or change the content of the Hamas charter, which, according to Hamas leaders, remains valid and relevant to this day.
Hamas's representative in Iran, Khaled Qaddoumi, confirmed.... that the talk about Hamas accepting a Palestinian state in the West Bank, Gaza Strip and east Jerusalem was in the context of a plan to destroy Israel in phases.
"There is no solution to the Palestinian problem except by jihad." — Hamas charter, Article 13.
Hamas, of course, never misses an opportunity to remind its followers and the rest of the world that it remains faithful to the words of the prophet Mohammed, who said: "The time will not come until Muslims will fight the Jews (and kill them); until the Jews hide behind rocks and trees, which will cry: O Muslim! There is a Jew hiding behind me, come on and kill him!" — Hamas charter, Article 7.
Days after the decision was announced, the Hamas leadership leader said...: "Palestine - all of Palestine - from its [Mediterranean] sea to its [Jordan] river, is for the Palestinian people, and there is no place or legitimacy for strangers over any inch of it." — hamas.ps, November 29, 2021.
The statements of Hamas leaders show that they dissemble less than many of their own apologists in the West, who claim that they understand Hamas better than Hamas understands itself.
The document reportedly depicting Hamas as a moderate group that accepts the "two-state solution" is a bluff intended to dupe the international community. As Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal (pictured) explained, even if Hamas accepts a Palestinian state in the West Bank, Gaza Strip and east Jerusalem, that does not mean that it would ever recognize Israel's right to exist. (Photo by Mohammed Saber/AFP via Getty Images)
One of the arguments that is being raised against the British government's recent decision to designate Hamas an extremist terrorist organization is that the Gaza-based movement, which does not recognize Israel's right to exist, has changed and now supports the establishment of a Palestinian state next to Israel.
Opponents of the UK's decision claim that in 2017 Hamas "softened its stance on Israel by accepting the idea of a Palestinian state in territories occupied by Israel in the six-day war of 1967."
The purported change, they argue, was included in a new document announced by Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal at a press conference in Doha, Qatar. Mashaal was quoted as saying:
"Hamas advocates the liberation of all of Palestine, but is ready to support the [Palestinian] state on 1967 borders without recognizing Israel or ceding any rights."
Continue Reading Article
Saturday, December 4, 2021
Never would have been tried with President Trump! Biden’s Afghan Blunders & Systemic Incompetence created opportunities for Russia, China, Islamic Fascists, & other US enemies…both foreign and domestic! How’s that working out for you #UsefulIdiots who supported this train wreck? WWIII ???
U.S. warns of possible Russian invasion of Ukraine with 175,000 troops as soon as January
BY OLIVIA GAZIS, DAVID MARTIN
DECEMBER 4, 2021 / 12:36 PM / CBS NEWS
U.S. intelligence is warning of a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine involving as many as 175,000 troops as soon as January, a U.S. official confirmed to CBS News following a Friday report in The Washington Post about the scale of a possible offensive.
The plans involve extensive movement of 100 battalion tactical groups with an estimated 175,000 personnel, along with armor, artillery and equipment, according to an administration official.
Roughly 70,000 Russian troops are currently deployed opposite Ukraine, although they lack the support units needed to launch an invasion. That support would come from reservists.
According to the administration official, Russia has embarked on a sudden and rapid program to establish a ready reserve of contract reservists — something that was not seen back in the spring during a rapid Russian military buildup near Ukraine's borders.
us.jpg
An unclassified intelligence document obtained by CBS News shows evidence of recent Russian troop and equipment movement near the Ukraine border.
A National Security Council spokesperson said the Biden administration has been consistent in its message to Russia, which is that the United States does not seek conflict, and that diplomacy and de-escalation should be used to avert a crisis.
"We are deeply concerned by evidence that Russia is stepping up its planning for significant military action against Ukraine," the spokesperson told CBS News.
The U.S. and other officials have been sounding the alarm in recent weeks over Russian troops massing, concerned that an offensive or an escalation of a seven-year-long conflict in the volatile eastern region of Donbas could be on the horizon.
Russian officials, however, have said reports of a military buildup are baseless and in turn accused NATO of building more of a foothold in what Russia considers its own backyard. The country's top diplomat attacked the alliance this week for deploying a significant amount of military hardware near Russia's borders and said Moscow could respond to security threats from Western countries and Ukraine if necessary.
"The fact that we are being accused of conducting military exercises on our sovereign territory by the countries that are bringing troops and military equipment to our borders in huge quantities from overseas and the fact that the United States has surrounded us from all sides with their military bases is something every schoolkid knows," Russia's Sergey Lavrov said Tuesday.
"And yet this hysteria is constantly being whipped up," he said.
YELNYA, RUSSIA -- NOVEMBER 1, 2021: Maxar high-resolution closeup (02) satellite imagery showing the presence of ground forces on the northern edge of of Yelnya in western Russia. Please use: Satellite image (c) 2021 Maxar Technologies.
Maxar high-resolution closeup satellite imagery showing the presence of ground forces on the northern edge of of Yelnya in western Russia.
MAXAR/CONTRIBUTOR VIA GETTY IMAGES
The U.S., however, has information indicating that Russian media outlets and others have been increasing content disparaging Ukraine and NATO, partly to blame a possible Russian military escalation on Ukraine, according to the administration official.
There are also indications that Russian officials have proposed emphasizing a narrative that Ukrainian leaders were installed by the West, harbor hatred for the "Russian world" and were acting against the Ukrainian people's interest.
Mary Ilyushina contributed reporting to this article
Friday, December 3, 2021
Yet another example of the Marxist Socialist Democratic Utopian Cesspool the Democrats have created in California! You get & deserve what you voted for! Coming to your community soon, unless you wake up & #VoteResponsibly!
LAW & THE COURTS
Fourteen Looting Suspects Released on California’s ‘Zero Bail’ Rule
By BRITTANY BERNSTEIN
December 3, 2021
Los Angeles Police chief Michel Moore on Thursday faulted California’s “zero bail” policy with returning 14 suspected “smash and grab” looters back to the streets.
“All the suspects taken into custody are out of custody, either as a result of one juvenile, or the others as a result of bailing out or zero-bail criteria,” Moore said of 14 suspects arrested in connection with eleven robberies between late last month that cost businesses some $338,000 in stolen merchandise and more than $40,000 in property damage.
Meanwhile, Los Angeles County District Attorney George Gascón’s office vowed to hold robbers accountable amid a surge in smash and grab crimes in recent weeks despite Gascon’s support for ending bail for many crimes, according to the Associated Press.
“Our office has been collaborating with multiple law enforcement agencies and once all the evidence has been gathered, we will review the cases to determine what criminal charges should be filed,” said Alex Bastian, special adviser to Gascón. “These brazen acts hurt all of us: retailers, employees and customers alike.”
The San Francisco Bay Area has also been plagued by looting in recent weeks; San Francisco district attorney Chesa Boudin announced felony charges against nine suspects connected with the robberies last week.
San Jose saw another smash and grab looting as recently as Thursday afternoon, when a group of masked suspects smashed up and robbed a jewelry store.
While California voters spurned a proposed end to the state’s cash-bail system in November 2020, a California Supreme Court ruled in March that state judges must consider a suspect’s ability to pay when determining bail prices, which in effect allows the poorest offenders to go free pending further legal action, unless they’re determined to be dangerous.
Sean Pritchard, president of the San Jose Police Officers Association, told Fox News that the policy is “an absolute assault on the safety of San Jose residents,” after it allowed for the release of two homicide suspects who police believe are connected to a Halloween murder.
The policy also allowed a car-theft suspect to be arrested 13 times in 12 weeks after repeated releases, according to the outlet.
Thursday, December 2, 2021
Every day Jimmy Carter’s Presidency shines brighter and brighter as the Marxist Socialist Democratic Regime of Biden stumbles along setting new lows on Presidential Poles! “GO BRANDON!”
Joe Biden facing 'a real threat' as President humiliated in two new polls - trust plummets
Teresa Gottein Martinez
Navigating the coronavirus pandemic has been President Biden's biggest challenge since he was sworn into office nearly a year ago. While it seemed, at one point, he had overcome the worst of the crisis, the Omicron variant may prove otherwise.
One new poll has shown only 48 percent of Americans trust Mr Biden to navigate the nation through the trouble.
In May and June, only 34 percent of respondents of a Fox News poll disapproved of Mr Biden's handling of the pandemic, while 64 percent approved.
However, ratings have plunged, with the most recent poll showing a more narrow divide of 49 percent of respondents disapproving of the President's approach in dealing with the coronavirus and 48 percent approving.
READ MORE: Donald Trump slams Joe Biden over US coronavirus vaccine rollout 'Done a terrible job!'
Commenting on the results, Clifford Young of polling company Ipsos told Fox News on Tuesday: "He won the election on Covid, surfed the Covid wave for the first part of the year and was hurt by the Delta variant.
"The new Omicron variant is a real threat to Biden's standing with the public.
"Omicron could further weaken the president heading into the midterms."
He added: "America has become more optimistic with anticipation of an end to Covid.
"And any check on this trend will negatively impact confidence overall and in Biden more specifically."
Mr Biden on Monday said the new coronavirus variant was a "cause for concern, not a cause for panic".
On Tuesday, he announced he would outline how the nation would protect itself from Omicron.
The same day, on December 1, the US recorded its first Omicron case in a fully vaccinated traveller who had arrived in California from South Africa on November 22.
Mr Biden specified they would fight the variant "not with shutdowns or lockdowns but with more widespread vaccinations, boosters, testing and more".
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The hurdles posed by Omicron follow pushbacks in federal courts on Mr Biden's vaccination strategy.
His administration's requirement for companies with more than 100 employees to enforce the vaccine, which would apply to over 80 million workers, has been held up.
Federal judges blocked two other mandates, and a third one was challenged in at least 17 lawsuits.
A second analysis, conducted from October 26 to November 8 by Harvard Youth Poll, found only 46 percent of Americans aged 18 to 29 approve of Mr Biden's job as president - a 13 percent fall from results in spring.
Overall, despite the President's declining approval rate, 78 percent of the 2,109 young people that were surveyed said they are still satisfied with their vote for Mr Biden in 2020.
From early next week, international travellers will have to take a PCR or antigen test up to 24 hours before their departure. The timeframe for the test has gone down from 72 hours.
The rule is to apply to all travellers, regardless of their vaccination status, nationality or country of origin.
The Biden administration is reportedly also considering imposing a seven-day quarantine for all travellers, including Americans, who arrive in the US - regardless of their test result.
Mr Biden is set to confirm the new set of rules to halt the spread of the virus on Thursday.
Marxist Socialist Democratic Tactic: Appoint Judges to Accomplish an Agenda that the Ballot Box Rejected!
Wild-Eyed Leftist’: Ted Cruz Rattles Biden Nominee Over His Past Statements
Ted Cruz Grills Dale Ho
Republican Texas Sen. Ted Cruz challenged President Joe Biden’s U.S. district court nominee Dale Ho on Wednesday over his past statements.
Cruz asked Ho to explain why he described himself in the past as “a wild-eyed Leftist” and someone “accused sometimes of seeing discrimination everywhere” he looked during the Wednesday confirmation hearing of the Senate Judiciary Committee.
“Senator Cruz, I think the key word in that quote is ‘accused’,” Ho responded. “I think I was characterizing how others have caricatured myself.”
The Texas senator then went on to say that Ho had launched partisan attacks on the Republican members of the Senate Judiciary Committee in the past.
Cruz also quoted Ho’s 2017 statement, in which the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) lawyer called his hatred towards conservatives a source of “moral clarity” capable to “motivate the long hours needed to get the work done.” (RELATED: Biden’s FCC Nominee With History Of Net Neutrality Activism Set For Tough Hearing)
“I recognize that New York is a blue state, but imagine there is someone who considers himself or herself a conservative in the state of New York, who, God forbid, finds themselves in a courtroom where you’re wearing a robe,” Cruz said to the judicial nominee for the Southern District of New York.
“What comfort do you think that litigant would have that you described the hatred of conservatives, the righteous indignation, the anger at conservatives, as a tremendous source of power for you personally?” Cruz asked.
Ho claimed that the quoted part of his statement was a joke that he relayed during his speech at a church.
Biden’s nominee said that he did not know of any discriminatory admission practices Yale Law School, his alma mater, applied to his fellow Asian-Americans.
Ho then asserted that he would like to follow the examples of judges who hold political views as having no role “on the bench.”
“Well, your record suggests precisely the contrary,” Cruz said in response.
Wednesday, December 1, 2021
The Blundering Biden Marxist Socialist Democratic Regime program of weakness & incompetence results in daily attacks & probes of the American national defense network by emboldened Chinese & Russian enemies!
JOSEPH TREVITHICK View Joseph Trevithick's Articles
@FranticGoat
U.S. Space Force's General David Thompson, the service's second in command, said last week that Russia and China are launching "reversible attacks," such as electronic warfare jamming, temporarily blinding optics with lasers, and cyber attacks, on U.S. satellites "every single day." He also disclosed that a small Russian satellite used to conduct an on-orbit anti-satellite weapon test back in 2019 had first gotten so close to an American one that there were concerns an actual attack was imminent.
Thompson, who is Vice Chief of Space Operations, disclosed these details to The Washington Post's Josh Rogin in an interview on the sidelines of the Halifax International Security Forum, which ran from Nov. 19 to 21 in Halifax, Nova Scotia, in Canada. The forum opened just four days after a Russian anti-satellite weapon test involving a ground-launched interceptor, which destroyed a defunct Soviet-era electronic intelligence satellite and created a cloud of debris that presents a risk to the International Space Station (ISS). That test drew widespread condemnation, including from the U.S. government, and prompted renewed discussion about potential future conflicts in space.
DOD
U.S. Space Force General David Thompson, Vice Chief of Space Operations, sits in a room at the Pentagon during a remote talk hosted by the Association of Old Crows in January 2021.
“The threats are really growing and expanding every single day. And it’s really an evolution of activity that’s been happening for a long time,” Thompson, told Rogin. “We’re really at a point now where there’s a whole host of ways that our space systems can be threatened.”
"Right now, Space Force is dealing with what Thompson calls 'reversible attacks' on U.S. government satellites (meaning attacks that don’t permanently damage the satellites) 'every single day,'" according to Rogin. "Both China and Russia are regularly attacking U.S. satellites with non-kinetic means, including lasers, radio frequency jammers, and cyber attacks, he said."
DIA
A Defense Intelligence Agency graphic showing a full spectrum of potential attack types in space, ranging from the reversible to the nonreversible.
DIA
An infographic depicting, broadly, how satellites would be jammed during the uplink and downlink of data.
This is not the first time American officials have publicly accused a foreign power of conducting a "reversible attack" on a U.S. satellite. In 2006, the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO), the U.S. government's top satellite intelligence arm, confirmed that a spy satellite had been "illuminated" by a ground-based Chinese laser. "It was a test … It makes us think," then-NRO Director Donald Kerr said at the time, adding that there had been no impact to the satellite's intelligence-gathering capabilities in that instance.
Thompson's assertion that these kinds of attacks are occurring with extreme frequency is new. It underscores the rapid development and fielding by Russia and China, among others, of a wide variety of anti-satellite capabilities, something the U.S. military has called increasing attention to in recent years.
“The Chinese are actually well ahead [of Russia],” Thompson told Rogin. “They're fielding operational systems at an incredible rate.”
The systems that Russia and China are known to be developing or have already fielded include destructive and non-destructive types that are deployed from Earth, such as ground-based jammers, lasers, or interceptors, as well as small "killer satellites" positioned in orbit. A killer satellite able to maneuver close to its target could use various means to try to disable, damage, or even destroy it, such as jammers, directed energy weapons, robotic arms, chemical sprays, and small projectiles. It could even deliberately smash into the other satellite in a kinetic attack.
DIA
An infographic showing the various ways one satellite might attack another in orbit.
In 2019, a small Russian satellite released a projectile in one on-orbit anti-satellite weapon test. Thompson provided new details about this incident in his interview with Rogin, saying Russia's satellite had first got in very close to a U.S. 'national security satellite' and that "the U.S. government didn’t know whether it was attacking or not."
“It maneuvered close, it maneuvered dangerously, it maneuvered threateningly so that they were coming close enough that there was a concern of collision,” Thompson said. “So clearly, the Russians were sending us a message.”
In January 2020, another small Russian satellite closely shadowed a U.S. spy satellite, something that also elicited statements of concern from the U.S. government.
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Beyond the clearly very serious implications of the 2019 incident itself, the Vice Chief of Space Operations' comments underscore the challenges the U.S. military and the rest of the U.S. government face in deterring hostile actors or actually responding to acts of aggression in space. In recent years, American officials have increasingly pointed to the policy and other problems caused by the extreme secrecy that surrounds U.S. military activities, as well as those conducted by the U.S. Intelligence Community, outside the Earth's atmosphere.
In another prime example of the secrecy issue, when asked, Thompson could not confirm or deny whether any American satellites had actually been damaged in a Russian or Chinese attack. Beyond that, he told Rogin that even if such a thing had occurred, that very fact would be classified.
What Space Force's second in command could say adds new context and weight to a series of often vague comments from various U.S. Air Force officials back in 2019. Space Force was formally established as a separate branch within the Department of the Air Force in December of that year.
“There may come a point where we demonstrate some of our capabilities so that our adversaries understand they cannot deny us the use of space without consequence,” then-Secretary of the Air Force Heather Wilson had said at the Space Foundation’s 35th annual Space Symposium in April 2019.
USAF
Former Secretary of the Air Force Heather Wilson.
“That capability needs to be one that’s understood by your adversary,” she added. “They need to know there are certain things we can do, at least at some broad level, and the final element of deterrence is uncertainty. How confident are they that they know everything we can do? Because there’s a risk calculation in the mind of an adversary.”
“It's not enough to stand in the ring and take punches,” then-U.S. Air Force Chief of Staff General David Goldfein said at the same event. "You have to have the will and capability to punch back.
“You would have to be careful about what we declassify, but there is much more classified than what needs to be," Barbara Barrett, who became Secretary of the Air Force in October 2019 after Wilson stepped down, said later that year. “The lack of an understanding really does hurt us in doing things that we need to do in space."
USAF
Former Secretary of the Air Force Barbara Barrett during a ceremony unveiling the newly decorated Space Force hallway at the Pentagon in December 2020.
“There isn’t a constituency for space even though almost everyone uses space before their first cup of coffee in the morning," Barrett had added at that time, highlighting the U.S. military's heavy reliance on a wide variety of space-based capabilities. These include early warning, intelligence-gathering, navigation and weapon guidance, communications and data-sharing, and more.
Even reversible attacks against any of this space-based infrastructure could have major impacts on the U.S. military's ability to effectively conduct combat operations. The U.S. military has been very open about its efforts to develop and field new and improved space-based capabilities, as well as explore new concepts, such as distributed constellations of smaller satellites and ways to rapidly deploy new systems into orbit, to help reduce vulnerabilities to anti-satellite attacks, in general.
Details about the U.S. military's own so-called "counter-space" capabilities, on the other hand, are extremely limited, as its ability to conduct what it has termed "orbital warfare." To date, the only publicly acknowledged offensive counter-space weapon it has is a variant of the Counter Communications System (CCS). At present, Space Force operates the Block 10.2 version of the CCS, but a Block 10.3 type is now in development that is reportedly "more modular and scalable," according to Janes. Official budget documents released last year revealed that the Block 10.3 system is one that had previously only been identified by the nickname Meadowlands.
In announcing that L3 Harris Technologies had received a contract worth nearly $120.8 million to upgrade existing Block 10.2 systems on Oct. 22, 2021, the Pentagon did publicly state that they offer "a ground-based, deployable electronic warfare capability to reversibly deny satellite communications, early warning, and propaganda." That same contracting notice revealed that there are "16 Counter Communications Block 10.2 fielded systems which currently operate at Peterson Space Force Base, Colorado; Vandenberg Space Force Base, California; Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, Florida; and classified deployed locations outside the continental U.S."
However, U.S. officials have at least strongly implied that the U.S. military's offensive counter-space capabilities are not limited to CCS.
L3 HARRIS TECHNOLOGIES
Trailer-mounted antenna dishes associated with the Counter Communications Systems Block 10.2.
At the end of the day, what this means is that the U.S. government is faced with a serious predicament when it comes to warning off adversaries in space and otherwise protecting critical assets in orbit, including ones the very existence of which are classified.
“It’s really difficult to go ahead and justify how you might attack somebody’s homeland if they’ve taken out a satellite that you don’t even admit exists,” Douglas Loverro, then-Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Space Policy, said during a talk in 2016 in what remains one of the most succinct descriptions to date of the core issues at play. “Is jamming an attack? Is a laser an attack? Does it have to be a kinetic hit on a satellite to be an attack?”
From what we know now from General Thompson's comments, it would seem that the U.S. military has decided that reversible attacks do not warrant direct retaliation. At the same time, from what we understand about the veil of secrecy over the U.S. government's operations in space, classified retaliatory actions may occur regularly. Russia, China, or any other hostile actor could easily be equally disinclined to publicly announce attacks on counter-space capabilities that they don't admit they possess.
"The United States will work with our allies and partners to respond to Russia's irresponsible act," U.S. State Department Spokesperson Ned Price said after Russia's anti-satellite weapon test on Nov. 15. "We as you know, don't telegraph specific measures, but as I said before, we will work with our allies and partners in different ways to make clear that the United States that the international community is not going to tolerate this kind of irresponsible behavior."
Regardless, if Russia and China are conducting reversible attacks against U.S. government satellites every day, it certainly shows that the threshold for doing so is low and that those countries view the consequences, whatever they might be, as manageable and very unlikely to lead to an open conflict. That non-destructive attacks have no potential to cause direct human fatalities and the ease with which they could be denied only further lows that bar. All of this also raises questions about what those countries might be doing in space that is directed against smaller nations that have little or no ability to respond directly.
That being said, Russia's recent anti-satellite weapon test has prompted renewed calls for arms control agreements to ban anti-satellite systems, which present threats to military and non-military systems in space. This includes the indirect risks that come from the debris produced by the destruction of satellites in orbit.
Vice Chief of Space Operations Thompson's new comments only reinforces the dangers that the current environment presents, where at least reversible attacks in space have become an everyday occurrence.
Contact the author: joe@thedrive.com
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