If Russia Strikes Ukraine, Here's How the Pentagon Could Bring the Heat!

This could be the U.S. military's playbook for a war in Eastern Europe. BY KYLE MIZOKAMI DEC 8, 2021 russian army t72 b3m tanks are seen during the annual armySOPA IMAGESGETTY IMAGES U.S. intelligence officials now believe that Russia's military buildup on its border with Ukraine is a prelude to attack. While an attack is not certain, the stockpiling of forces would allow Moscow to stage a limited invasion of its rival. The Pentagon has a range of options to deal with a potential conflict, from sending Ukraine intelligence data, to deploying U.S. troops to Eastern Europe. Following a virtual summit on Tuesday between U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin, Washington believes that the Kremlin is preparing to attack its neighbor, Ukraine, and may do so as early as January. The leaders' meeting—which seemed mostly unproductive—centered on Russia's massing of up to 175,000 troops on Ukraine's border, and what the U.S. may (or may not) do about it. Washington has a range of options to deter Moscow, from providing Kiev with key intelligence, to sending troops, aircraft, and ships to Europe. Yet as much as Putin understands the use of force, it may ultimately be the economic sanctions that Biden foreshadowed in their virtual meeting that will prompt Russia to reconsider its bad neighbor policy. If it does come down to a physical conflict—or perhaps even war—the U.S. has a wide range of options to deal with Russia, though. ✅ GET THE FACTS What You Need to Know About a Russia-Ukraine War How Many Russian Troops Have Massed Ukraine? In late November, Bloomberg reported that U.S. intelligence officers had briefed its NATO allies about a Russian massing of ground forces. The buildup, along Russia's border with its neighbor Ukraine, consisted of about 50 battalion tactical groups, or about the equivalent of five divisions of combat troops. Battalion tactical groups (BTGs) are self-contained combat groups consisting of armor, motorized rifle, artillery, and air defense forces capable of independent operations. Intelligence sources believe that the buildup ultimately could consist of about 100 BTGs, or about 175,000 troops. In August, Russian state media reported that the entire Russian Ground Forces fielded "about" 170 BTGs. MORE FROM POPULAR MECHANICS The UH-60 Black Hawk Play Video russia holds amphibious landing exercise The Saratov large landing ship and Mil Mi-8AMTSh helicopters take part in an exercise in amphibious landing, Crimea, October 2021. Ukraine SERGEI MALGAVKOGETTY IMAGES The U.S. and NATO still don't know what Putin truly intends to do with his assembled armies, but during the Tuesday videoconference with President Biden, he said that Russia will not attack. Still, the Kremlin is paranoid about eastward NATO expansion, and wants guarantees that member nations will not deploy weapons near Russia, per the BBC. Those are negotiations that the U.S. and NATO may not be interested in, however. Meanwhile, Putin could be attempting to intimidate Ukraine and its people, hoping they would elect a government more bent on Russian appeasement, if not with a pro-Russian bent. Or, he might be planning limited attacks to seize small tracts of Ukrainian territory. In the worst-case-scenario, Russia might even stage an all-out attack on Ukraine, though Putin seems to understand it would be risky to get himself dragged into an Iraq-style guerrilla war with a country the size of Texas. How Could the U.S. Military Respond to Conflict in Ukraine? rq 4 global hawk The RQ-4 Global Hawk can survey an area the size of Illinois in 24 hours, making it an important surveillance tool in the U.S. arsenal. GETTY IMAGESGETTY IMAGES The first (and arguably most important) tactic is to increase surveillance of Russian forces to figure out what they're up to. The U.S. Army could redeploy RC-12 Guardrail spy aircraft, which typically operate from the Baltic states to monitor Russian communications in and around Kaliningrad (a Russian province between between Poland and Lithuania), to keep watch over the Russian-Ukrainian border. Meanwhile, the Air Force could increase surveillance missions with RQ-4 Global Hawk drones. Those operations typically begin in Sicily and involve the giant 737-sized drones flying eastward over Ukraine and the Black Sea, while looking into Russia itself. Special operations forces might engage on the ground in Ukraine, probing Russian ground forces and collecting information. ➡️ READ THIS NEXT Why the M1A1 Abrams Is Such a Badass Tank If the U.S. detects that Russia is preparing for imminent attack in the coming weeks, there are options that could dissuade it from doing so, all while laying the groundwork for a more forceful response. Activating the U.S. Military Sealift Command fleet—the force that would transport tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, and other heavy equipment across the Atlantic—would send a strong signal that the Pentagon is prepared to send ground forces to Europe. (The sealift fleet is also old, and the earlier it's activated, the better.) m2a3 A M2A3 Bradley fighting vehicle with 1st Armored Brigade Combat Team, 1st Infantry Division, fires a 25-millimeter tracer round during an integrated night live-fire exercise for Winter Shield 2021 at Camp Ādaži, Ādaži, Latvia, November 25, 2021. U.S. ARMY PHOTO BY SPC. MICHAEL BAUMBERGER/DVIDS The Army could also redeploy existing forces in Europe to prepare to counter a Russian buildup. The 1st Armored Brigade Combat Team, 1st Infantry Division is in Europe, training with NATO and other European allies, but many of its subunits are widely separated across the continent. Reforming the brigade in eastern Poland would create a potent, on-the- ground intervention force. Other troops that could mass in Poland include the 2nd Cavalry Regiment in Germany and the 173rd Airborne Brigade in Italy. Activating National Guard combat units—like Mississippi's 30th Armored Brigade Combat Team and the Texas Army National Guard's 36th Infantry Division—would send a signal that the U.S. is preparing for an extended crisis, even disrupting the lives of reservists. This content is imported from {embed-name}. You may be able to find the same content in another format, or you may be able to find more information, at their web site. Naturally, the Navy would also get in on the action. U.S. aircraft carrier assets are thin right now, with just one carrier operating between the East Coast and the Philippine Sea. The USS Harry S. Truman Carrier Strike Group departed Norfolk, Virginia on November 30 for a regularly scheduled deployment. Truman and her escorts will likely end up off Europe in the coming weeks, and moving the strike group into the Baltic Sea would enable her strike fighters and Tomahawk cruise missiles to threaten Russian forces massing against northern Ukraine. Another option is to send one or more Ohio-class guided-missile submarines to Europe, making visible appearances in local ports. Each is equipped with up to 154 Tomahawk cruise missiles. b 1b craft Originally designed as a low-altitude penetrator, the B-1B is now capable of attacking up to two dozen targets from as far as 575 miles away. ETHAN MILLERGETTY IMAGES The Air Force, with its stealth fighters and long-range cruise missiles, might well be the most decisive arm. Fighters and bombers, including F-22 Raptors, F-35 Joint Strike Fighters, and F-15E Strike Eagles could cross the Atlantic and touch down at bases in NATO countries such as Poland and Romania, both of which share a border with Ukraine. U.S. Strategic Command might forward-deploy bombers, laden with cruise missiles, to bases in the United Kingdom. American military planners would likely elect to send B-1B Lancer bombers due to their ability to carry up to 24 Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles at a time. A force of just ten B-1Bs, armed with JASSM cruise missiles, can strike up to 240 separate targets, devastating the Russian military's ability to sustain an invasion force. B-1Bs also have the benefit of being incapable of carrying nuclear weapons, reassuring Moscow that Washington isn't deploying nuclear arms to Europe. Yet. ✈︎ BEFORE YOU GO... Why the F-22 Raptor Is Such a Badass Plane Why the F-35 Is Such a Badass Plane The Pentagon's capabilities are so vast that these are just some possible military options. Yet as much as the Pentagon can do, nothing would hit Putin as hard as economic sanctions. Testimony in the U.S. Senate in 2017 claimed that Putin himself had a net worth of $200 billion at the time—making him one one of richest men in the world. The dominance of Western financial institutions and the interconnected nature of the global economy makes his fortune, and those of his allies, vulnerable to economic sanctions. But are threats of military action and sanctions enough to keep Russia out of Ukraine? Only Putin could tell you. KYLE MIZOKAMI Writer on Defense and Security issues, lives in San Francisco.