Russia Claims First Ukraine City, but can it hold it?

Foreign Policy Logo Foreign Policy Flashpoints MARCH 03, 2022 | VIEW IN BROWSER By Colm Quinn Welcome to Morning Brief, where we’re rounding up the latest on Russia’s war in Ukraine, the intervention of the International Criminal Court, and the renewed focus on oligarchs. Have tips or feedback? Hit reply to this email to let me know your thoughts. Peace Talks Resume But Bombardment Continues Russian and Ukrainian negotiators meet in Belarus today for peace talks as the war enters its second week. The talks take place as momentum slowly shifts toward the invaders, after Russia notched its first strategic victory late Wednesday as it captured Kherson, a city of around 300,000 people, and home to a port on both the Black Sea and Dnieper river. Kherson’s mayor said the city would now be in the hands of a Russian military administration. In Kharkiv, a monitor from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) was killed in a Russian strike as the city continues to suffer bombardment. Russia’s forces in the south are attempting to shut off Ukraine’s access to the Black Sea. Mariupol in the east is still surrounded, while an amphibious assault on Odessa could come as soon as today, according to U.S. officials. Logistical snags that have plagued Russian forces in Ukraine’s north have yet to improve, with a 40-mile military convoy headed in the direction of the capital Kyiv reportedly stalled. A U.S. defense official, speaking to reporters on condition of anonymity, said that food and fuel shortages have disrupted the vehicles’ progress and confirmed that Ukrainian efforts to target the convoy with artillery had seen some success. Meanwhile, the refugee exodus shows no signs of stopping, as U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees Filippo Grandi reported that the total number of those leaving Ukraine had reached more than 1 million. The death toll. As the information war proceeds in parallel with the destruction on the ground, both sides released contrasting Russian troop casualty numbers, with Russia’s defense ministry admitting to at least 498 dead and 1,597 injured while Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelensky gave a much higher figure: 6,000 dead. The truth is likely somewhere in between these two figures, but the fact Russia is announcing the figures at all is a turnaround from just a few days ago, when officials claimed zero casualties. Russia claims to have killed 2,870 Ukrainian soldiers and wounded roughly 3,700. There hasn’t been a corresponding claim from the Ukrainian side on their casualties sustained so far. See you in court? As the focus turns to civilians amid Russian shelling of Ukrainian cities, the International Criminal Court announced on Wednesday that it was opening an active investigation into war crimes committed against the civilian population, making it the 17th case the court is investigating around the world. The U.N. Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights has so far recorded 752 civilian deaths since the war broke out. It’s not clear what kind of justice the ICC could seek, since Russia (like China, India, Israel, and the United States), does not recognize the court. Ukraine, a country that has signed but not ratified the Rome Statute—the treaty establishing the court—has accepted the court’s jurisdiction in a previous case. Oligarchs under the spotlight. The U.S. Justice Department on Wednesday announced the formation of a task force to track down and seize assets belonging to Russian oligarchs targeted by U.S. sanctions. (The group may want to begin with the state of South Dakota, which has fast become a money laundering mecca, according to Pandora papers leaks). The move comes as officials in Switzerland, another dark money haven, adopted EU sanctions on Russian individuals and entities, potentially freezing billions in assets. In the United Kingdom, whose capital has earned the nickname Londongrad for its soft approach on Russian oligarch investment in recent years, the government has been criticized for not moving quickly enough to target assets held there. Roman Abramovich, one of the world’s most famous oligarchs for his ownership of the Chelsea football club, is already attempting to get out of the limelight and away from sanctions. On Wednesday he announced he was selling the club after almost two decades as owner; he also appears to be hastily selling some of his exclusive London properties.