> A Las Vegas "odds  maker" opines on why Obama will get "killed" by Romney
> in November.  Interesting analysis and only a minute or so to  read.
>

>
> Most  political predictions are made by biased pollsters, pundits, or
> prognosticators who are either rooting for Republicans or Democrats. I am
> neither. I am a former Libertarian Vice Presidential nominee, and a
> well-known Vegas odds maker with one of the most accurate records of  predicting
> political races.
>
> But as an oddsmaker with a pretty  remarkable track record of picking
> political races, I play no favorites. I  simply use common sense to call
> them as  I see them. Back in late December I  released my New Years Predictions. I
> predicted back then- before a single  GOP primary had been held, with
> Romney  trailing for months to almost every  GOP competitor from Rick Perry to
> Herman  Cain to Newt- that Romney would  easily rout his competition to win the
> GOP  nomination by a landslide. I also  predicted that the Presidential race
> between Obama and Romney would be very  close until election day. But that
> on election day Romney would win by a  landslide similar to Reagan-Carter in
> 1980.
>
> Understanding  history, today I am even more convinced of a resounding
> Romney victory. 32  years ago at this moment in time, Reagan was losing by
> 9  points to Carter.  Romney is right now running even in polls. So why do
> most pollsters give  Obama the edge?
>
> First,  most pollsters are missing one ingredient- common sense. Here is
> my  gut  instinct.

Not one American who voted for McCain 4 years ago will
> switch to  Obama. Not one in all the land. But many millions of people who
> voted  for an  unknown Obama 4 years ago are angry, disillusioned, turned off, or
> scared  about the future. Voters know Obama now- and that is a bad
> harbinger.
>
> Now to  an analysis of the voting blocks that matter in U.S.  politics:

> *Black  voters. Obama has nowhere to go but down among this group. His
> endorsement of gay marriage has alienated many black church-going
> Christians.  He may get 88% of their vote instead of the 96% he got in 2008.  This is
> not  good news for Obama.
>
> *Hispanic  voters. Obama has nowhere to go but down among this group. If
> Romney  picks Rubio as his VP running-mate the GOP may pick up an extra
> 10% to 15%  of Hispanic voters (plus lock down Florida). This is not good news
> for  Obama.
>
> *Jewish  voters. Obama has been weak in his support of Israel. Many Jewish
> voters  and big donors are angry and disappointed. I predict Obama's
> Jewish  support  drops from 78% in 2008 to the low 60’s. This is not good news for
> Obama.
>
> *Youth  voters. Obama’s biggest and most enthusiastic believers from 4
> years ago  have graduated into a job market from hell. Young people are
> disillusioned,  frightened, and broke- a bad combination. The enthusiasm
> is long gone.  Turnout will be much lower among young voters, as will actual
> voting percentages. This not good news for Obama.
>
> *Catholic  voters. Obama won a majority of Catholics in 2008. That won’t
> happen  again. Out of desperation to please women, Obama went to war with
> the Catholic Church over contraception. Now he is being sued by the Catholic
> Church. Majority lost. This is not good news for Obama.
>
> *Small  Business owners.Because I ran for Vice President last time around,
> and  I'm a small businessman myself, I know literally thousands of small
> business  owners. At least 40% of them in my circle of friends, fans and
> supporters  voted for Obama 4 years ago to “give someone different a
> chance.” I warned  them that he would pursue a war on capitalism and demonize anyone
> who owned  a business...that he’d support unions over the private sector in a
> big  way...that he'd overwhelm the economy with spending and debt. My
> friends  didn’t listen. Four years later, I can't find one person in my circle of
> small business owner friends voting for Obama. Not one. This is not good
> news for Obama.
>
> *Blue  collar working class whites. Do I need to say a thing? White
> working class voters are about as happy with Obama as Boston Red Sox fans feel
> about  the New York Yankees. This is not good news for Obama.
>
> *Suburban  moms. The issue isn’t contraception…it’s having a job to pay
> for  contraception. Obama’s economy frightens these moms. They are worried
> about  putting food on the table. They fear for their children’s future.
> This is  not good news for Obama.
>
> *Military  Veterans. McCain won this group by 10 points. Romney is winning
> by 24  points. The more our military vets got to see of Obama, the more
> they  disliked him. This is not good news for Obama.
>
> Add  it up. Is there one major group where Obama has gained since 2008?
> Will  anyone in America wake up on election day saying “I didn’t vote for
> Obama 4  years ago. But he’s done such a fantastic job, I can’t wait to
> vote for him  today.” Does anyone feel that a vote for Obama makes their job
> more secure?
>
> Forget  the polls. My gut instincts as a Vegas oddsmaker and common sense
> small  businessman tell me this will be a historic landslide and a
> world-class  repudiation of Obama’s radical and risky socialist agenda.
> It's Reagan-Carter all over again.
>
> But  I’ll give Obama credit for one thing- he is living proof that
> familiarity  breeds contempt.
>