Putin and the Law of Unintended Consequences

by Amir Taheri • March 6, 2022 at 4:00 am The most striking illustration of this so far is the debunking of Putin's brazen claim that there is not and has never been a Ukrainian nation and that Ukraine is nothing but Russia misspelled. Putin insisted that Ukraine was nothing but a creation of Lenin, ignoring the fact that it was Lenin who signed away Ukraine to the Germans in the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk. Ukrainians have suddenly realized that looking east towards Russia means suffering invasion and colonization, while looking west towards Europe could mean freedom and prosperity... Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was reflecting his people's wishes when he asked for immediate membership in the European Union. The current crisis, however, showed that the Europeans can take the lead in being much tougher than the Americans under the risk-averse Joe Biden. For 20 years, the Putin wolf played grandmother in disguise. That disguise enabled him to get away with invading Georgia, dominating Belarus, massacring Syrians, propelling the mullahs of Tehran, annexing Crimea, taking joyrides in various parts of Africa, poisoning people in Europe, and trying to disrupt elections in several countries through cyber-attacks. All that time, almost a quarter of his income came from oil and gas sales to Western democracies -- oil and gas produced thanks to Western capital, technology, management and marketing. Ukrainians have suddenly realized that looking east towards Russia means suffering invasion and colonization, while looking west towards Europe could mean freedom and prosperity. There were no lines of Ukrainians seeking asylum in Russia or Belarus; the long queues were at the Polish and Romanian borders. Pictured: Refugees from Ukraine line up to enter Poland at the Medyka border crossing on February 28, 2022. (Photo by Wojtek Radwanski/AFP via Getty Images) As Russian President Vladimir Putin's war on Ukraine enters its third week, the naughty little law of unintended consequences is lifting its head above the parapet. The most striking illustration of this so far is the debunking of Putin's brazen claim that there is not and has never been a Ukrainian nation and that Ukraine is nothing but Russia misspelled. Putin insisted that Ukraine was nothing but a creation of Lenin, ignoring the fact that it was Lenin who signed away Ukraine to the Germans in the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk. Continue Reading Article

Richard Kemp: A Plan for Peace in Europe…

u=ae44aaf3f07dbffc928ba7cb5&id=eac09ea7d2&e=972385a8b7 by Richard Kemp • March 6, 2022 at 5:00 am [Putin] is now also demanding the nuclear disarming of Europe. Putin's next targets could be Moldova or the Baltic states which, like Ukraine, he reportedly considers illegitimate and properly part of Russia's sphere. If further suffering and bloodshed are to be avoided, the West must do all it can to ensure his current aggression fails. To halt Putin's broader ambitions, it is also essential that NATO keep the Ukrainian army fighting and that includes financing the war effort and getting lethal weapons and military equipment to Ukrainian forces. Russia must be isolated and turned into an international pariah not just while Putin's army is assaulting Ukraine but for as long as necessary. These actions will inflict damage on us as well, as Russia retaliates with its own sanctions and restrictions. The short term pain can be ameliorated in the medium term by eliminating dependence on Russian energy, increasing gas supplies from North Africa, the Adriatic and the Mediterranean. Also by reopening in the United States the world's largest supply of energy, which President Joe Biden began closing down his first day in office, and by fracking and building nuclear power plants. The development of our cyber defences, as well as offensive capabilities must be accelerated urgently and intelligence services expanded to counter and inflict severe damage to Russian espionage agencies. Some argue that punitive Western moves will drive Russia into China's arms. It is already there: Russia is the biggest single recipient of Chinese financial support globally, and Putin and Xi have established a military alliance. Where Putin demands that NATO pull back, it should push forward. Some may see this as provocative, but it is in fact a sign of strength which will do more to deter Putin than appeasing him. [Putin] knows that NATO poses no military threat to Russia and that it is a purely defensive alliance. If it is to restore the credibility it once had, which Biden's Afghanistan debacle did much to undermine, NATO must regain its strength — not only in military power but also the demonstrable political will to use it. As Israel often reminds us over Iran, if a leader threatens us with annihilation we cannot afford to hope he is not serious. Had the world focused on getting rid of Hitler in the 1930s rather than appeasing him, we may not have seen the horror of a global war that killed 70 million people. The urgency of a Western message of strength goes even beyond Russia. China's President Xi has greater territorial ambitions than Putin, and they are being played out today in every continent around the world. Xi's Ukraine is Taiwan, and it may be that visiting catastrophe on Russia's dictator will deter his friend in Beijing. Putin's next targets could be Moldova or the Baltic states which, like Ukraine, he reportedly considers illegitimate and properly part of Russia's sphere. If further suffering and bloodshed are to be avoided, the West must do all it can to ensure his current aggression fails. (Photo by Alexey Nikolsky/Sputnik/AFP via Getty Images) NATO's strategic objective should now be to bring down Russian President Vladimir Putin and see him replaced by a less dangerous leader. If he fails, harsh constraints are imposed on Russian oligarchs, and suffering is inflicted on ordinary citizens by Western diplomatic and economic action; his current adventure might cause him to self-destruct. If that does not happen, Putin will remain a permanent threat to NATO, Europe and the world. Russian law now allows him to hold onto power at least until 2036. He apparently aims to re-create the Soviet Union in a new form and restore Russia's superpower status by pushing NATO back, regaining Moscow's dominion over its eastern neighbours. He is now also demanding the nuclear disarming of Europe. https://gatestoneinstitute.us9.list-manage.com/track/click?u=ae44aaf3f07dbffc928ba7cb5&id=a09b9a86fe&e=972385a8b7 https://gatestoneinstitute.us9.list-manage.com/track/click?u=ae44aaf3f07dbffc928ba7cb5&id=5fec0b394c&e=972385a8b7 by Amir Taheri • March 6, 2022 at 4:00 am The most striking illustration of this so far is the debunking of Putin's brazen claim that there is not and has never been a Ukrainian nation and that Ukraine is nothing but Russia misspelled. Putin insisted that Ukraine was nothing but a creation of Lenin, ignoring the fact that it was Lenin who signed away Ukraine to the Germans in the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk. Ukrainians have suddenly realized that looking east towards Russia means suffering invasion and colonization, while looking west towards Europe could mean freedom and prosperity... Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was reflecting his people's wishes when he asked for immediate membership in the European Union. The current crisis, however, showed that the Europeans can take the lead in being much tougher than the Americans under the risk-averse Joe Biden. For 20 years, the Putin wolf played grandmother in disguise. That disguise enabled him to get away with invading Georgia, dominating Belarus, massacring Syrians, propelling the mullahs of Tehran, annexing Crimea, taking joyrides in various parts of Africa, poisoning people in Europe, and trying to disrupt elections in several countries through cyber-attacks. All that time, almost a quarter of his income came from oil and gas sales to Western democracies -- oil and gas produced thanks to Western capital, technology, management and marketing. Ukrainians have suddenly realized that looking east towards Russia means suffering invasion and colonization, while looking west towards Europe could mean freedom and prosperity. There were no lines of Ukrainians seeking asylum in Russia or Belarus; the long queues were at the Polish and Romanian borders. Pictured: Refugees from Ukraine line up to enter Poland at the Medyka border crossing on February 28, 2022. (Photo by Wojtek Radwanski/AFP via Getty Images) As Russian President Vladimir Putin's war on Ukraine enters its third week, the naughty little law of unintended consequences is lifting its head above the parapet. The most striking illustration of this so far is the debunking of Putin's brazen claim that there is not and has never been a Ukrainian nation and that Ukraine is nothing but Russia misspelled. Putin insisted that Ukraine was nothing but a creation of Lenin, ignoring the fact that it was Lenin who signed away Ukraine to the Germans in the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk. https://gatestoneinstitute.us9.list-manage.com/track/click?u=ae44aaf3f07dbffc928ba7cb5&id=306454367c&e=972385a8b7 Copyright © Gatestone Institute, All rights reserved. https://gatestoneinstitute.us9.list-manage.com/track/click?u=ae44aaf3f07dbffc928ba7cb5&id=3aa4947190&e=972385a8b7 14 East 60 St., Suite 705, New York, NY 10022

Brainwashing is best accomplished when you have no idea that it is being done but simply occurs as part of the fabric of your life. While you may "feel" that something is wrong, you are being programmed nonetheless. Think about TV Commercials and shows with these facts in mind.

Facts: US population 334 million consisting of 57.8% white, 18.7% Latino, 12.1% Black and 11.4% Asianor other. - Then break that down to about 10% of all existing marriages that are interracial including those of all races, and only 5.6% of the population that identifies as LGBT. You would expect the same ratio's in TV commercials if they represented America but here's what you see instead, taken from a log of TV commercials over a 4 month period, which is quite different. - For TV, white men as the majority of Americans have all but disappeared.  When they are in commercials they are either old, ugly and sick or they are the partner of a black woman and have no speaking part.  In 3 of the commercials  the white men are doing laundry and always paired with a little girl to whom they are delivering the clean clothes. In other words, less than 10% of the population is driving 90% of the narrative. - There were zero commercials of White fathers and sons. None! So while 75% of white children live with both their parents, including their fathers, we choose instead not to model that in favor of the 62% of black children that do not live in a two parent household? This is our new normal in their eyes? As acceptable? Is this the healthy "normal" image we want to model to our population? - Equally disturbing, young white boys and teens have also disappeared, unless they were flagrantly new age gay, as though that represents the "majority" instead of the pitifully small minority. What distorted perception of reality does that serve? The study found a majority of the children were white girls with a black "brother" even though this represents the smallest percentage of any reality discussed thus far!  The MAJORITY of TV commercial couples consist of a white woman with a black man, when in reality these make up about 6% of the 30% of blacks that are married or about 2% of our population. Are you starting to see how ridiculous, yet pervasive this extraordinary brainwashing is? Exactly what are they trying to program into us with this relentless deluge of non-reality? - Surprisingly, in the month of December there was an uptick (but not a majority) in good looking white male models, but research determined that in each and every case it was a cologne commercial and every one of those commercials were made in Europe where they still use white men in their commercials. Here, on the other hand, they prefer to portray young white males as so mind-numbingly stupid as being incapable of delivering their lines and couldn't even say "Liberty Mutual", the insurance company featured in the commercial. - Over a period of 4 months it concluded that while the African American population in America is only 12% they were in 94.3% of the commercials.  Black males are only 5% of our population yet were in 89.7% of the ads. Then you have to ask, where are the Asians and Latino's that make up nearly THREE TIMES the black population? Are they in THREE TIMES the number of ads or is something severely skewed here in the minds of Hollywood and Madison Avenue? - The fact is that while white males make up the largest segment of our population, they were in only in 4% of the TV commercials!  In most of those cases they are in their 60's to 80's and were pushing medication for debilitating diseases, reverse mortgages (Tom Selleck) or Medicare plans. While the study had many, many more alarming facts, one that really stands out is that virtually every ad campaign for new cars featured a woman driver except for Lincoln. In the commercials for automobiles there were more black women drivers than white women. Again, Europe was the exception here where Mercedes and BMW had NO VISIBLE DRIVERS!!  They showed the cars cruising highways but never allowed a view where the driver was visible. I found that very interesting. Are they more interested in selling the product while we appear to be more interested in selling the political/racial message? - And it is not just our commercials that offer this skewed media driven unreality. It is also nearly impossible to turn on a show that doesn't have a gay couple or LGBT component, yet in reality only one in eighteen should, if they want to accurately represent the less than 5.6% of the population that fall in this group. The results of this brainwashing are dramatic and very successful. Despite the low percentage in real life, when polled, Americans have been brainwashed to believe that 24% of all Americans are LGBT! Based on commercials, they must also believe that the "average" American family is biracial, that white men barely exist and Latinos/Asians do not exist at all. - That is the magic and the tragedy of the fake, dishonest and unrealistic "woke" TV that we watch and are affected by 24/7, even though it is far afield from our reality. Ditto for the "woke" minority that follow mindlessly in its wake, thinking that this bizarre narrative is in fact real or justified, when it is merely an illusion and fabrication. They truly do control our entire thought process and will distort our perception of reality, if we allow them to. - While it is one thing to erase the stigma of single parenthood, bi-racialism , or unusual sexual preferences, it is another thing completely to portray them as the "Role Model" or "Norm", as representative of our entire society, especially at the expense of true normality or realism. In this case, it looks like White, Latino, Asian and straight lives don’t matter according to them, and Black privilege with a side of LGBT has taken us over! WAKE UP AMERICA ... Keep your head and don't fall for it.

Determined Leadership Everywhere Except Biden’s (Marxist Socialist Democratic War on American Energy Independence), Open the Spigots, (Resume Keystone XL) & Open the EastMed Pipeline!

Leadership starts at the top, and Zelenskyy's leadership -- even that of Europe -- stands in sharp contrast to the failed leadership coming from almost every corner of the Biden Administration. The Biden Administration has been quick to join in on the sanctions and other measures targeting Russia, but note: Biden has joined, he has not led. [T]he Biden Administration still refuses to reverse America's dependency on Russian oil and gas by increasing domestic production and opening pipelines at home. There also has been no move to close the gigantic loopholes that fail to sanction Russia's oil and energy sector... Under Biden's leadership, we are experiencing policies that ask Americans to sacrifice and end up paying for Russia's aggression, rather than unleashing American ingenuity and creativity to meet the challenge. Switzerland abandoned its famous neutrality to sanction Russia and freeze the legendary Swiss bank accounts of Russian oligarchs. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz reversed course to close Russia's Nord Stream 2 pipeline, now in bankruptcy, to Germany, and to bolster the German military. Sweden and Finland are seriously considering reversing long-held positions, in order to join NATO. Meanwhile the Biden Administration remains stuck on its policy of American energy dependency, even pulling the plug on the crucial EastMed gas pipeline to Europe from America's allies, Israel, Cyprus and Greece. The EastMed pipeline should be built without delay. Let us see to it that Ukraine does become the end of the line for Putin, who has already accumulated a long trail of war crimes and other atrocities. Putin's Waterloo. We have been imposing only half-hearted financial sanctions, "riddled with loopholes" and not hitting Russia's oil and gas. We have passively been watching Putin's savage assault on Ukraine in real time his countless war crimes -- including "pummeling civilian areas" and reportedly using cluster and vacuum bombs -- as well as the humanitarian crisis he has unleashed. Let us hope that Biden shows real leadership and changes course so that America will no longer be reliant on Russia and China, regardless of the outcome. Now that would be in the best interests of the United States. Leadership starts at the top, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's leadership -- even that of Europe -- stands in sharp contrast to the failed leadership coming from almost every corner of the Biden Administration. Pictured: Zelenskyy meets with US President Joe Biden at the White House on September 1, 2021. (Photo by Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images) At present, Ukraine's forces look out-gunned and outnumbered by Russia's military. If Russian President Vladimir Putin ultimately does succeed in overpowering Ukraine and its capital, Kyiv, let us make sure it is his Waterloo. Boosted by the determined and pugnacious leadership shown by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, global reaction to Putin's invasion has been swift and hard on Russia. Sanctions on the Russian Central Bank and the restrictions on some Russian banks from the SWIFT banking transaction system have reduced the value of a Russian ruble to less than a penny while interest rates in Russia top 20%. The Russian stock market has been preemptively closed to prevent a crash, and Russian airlines are banned from flying over large swaths of the planet. Continue Reading Article

Russia Claims First Ukraine City, but can it hold it?

Foreign Policy Logo Foreign Policy Flashpoints MARCH 03, 2022 | VIEW IN BROWSER By Colm Quinn Welcome to Morning Brief, where we’re rounding up the latest on Russia’s war in Ukraine, the intervention of the International Criminal Court, and the renewed focus on oligarchs. Have tips or feedback? Hit reply to this email to let me know your thoughts. Peace Talks Resume But Bombardment Continues Russian and Ukrainian negotiators meet in Belarus today for peace talks as the war enters its second week. The talks take place as momentum slowly shifts toward the invaders, after Russia notched its first strategic victory late Wednesday as it captured Kherson, a city of around 300,000 people, and home to a port on both the Black Sea and Dnieper river. Kherson’s mayor said the city would now be in the hands of a Russian military administration. In Kharkiv, a monitor from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) was killed in a Russian strike as the city continues to suffer bombardment. Russia’s forces in the south are attempting to shut off Ukraine’s access to the Black Sea. Mariupol in the east is still surrounded, while an amphibious assault on Odessa could come as soon as today, according to U.S. officials. Logistical snags that have plagued Russian forces in Ukraine’s north have yet to improve, with a 40-mile military convoy headed in the direction of the capital Kyiv reportedly stalled. A U.S. defense official, speaking to reporters on condition of anonymity, said that food and fuel shortages have disrupted the vehicles’ progress and confirmed that Ukrainian efforts to target the convoy with artillery had seen some success. Meanwhile, the refugee exodus shows no signs of stopping, as U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees Filippo Grandi reported that the total number of those leaving Ukraine had reached more than 1 million. The death toll. As the information war proceeds in parallel with the destruction on the ground, both sides released contrasting Russian troop casualty numbers, with Russia’s defense ministry admitting to at least 498 dead and 1,597 injured while Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelensky gave a much higher figure: 6,000 dead. The truth is likely somewhere in between these two figures, but the fact Russia is announcing the figures at all is a turnaround from just a few days ago, when officials claimed zero casualties. Russia claims to have killed 2,870 Ukrainian soldiers and wounded roughly 3,700. There hasn’t been a corresponding claim from the Ukrainian side on their casualties sustained so far. See you in court? As the focus turns to civilians amid Russian shelling of Ukrainian cities, the International Criminal Court announced on Wednesday that it was opening an active investigation into war crimes committed against the civilian population, making it the 17th case the court is investigating around the world. The U.N. Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights has so far recorded 752 civilian deaths since the war broke out. It’s not clear what kind of justice the ICC could seek, since Russia (like China, India, Israel, and the United States), does not recognize the court. Ukraine, a country that has signed but not ratified the Rome Statute—the treaty establishing the court—has accepted the court’s jurisdiction in a previous case. Oligarchs under the spotlight. The U.S. Justice Department on Wednesday announced the formation of a task force to track down and seize assets belonging to Russian oligarchs targeted by U.S. sanctions. (The group may want to begin with the state of South Dakota, which has fast become a money laundering mecca, according to Pandora papers leaks). The move comes as officials in Switzerland, another dark money haven, adopted EU sanctions on Russian individuals and entities, potentially freezing billions in assets. In the United Kingdom, whose capital has earned the nickname Londongrad for its soft approach on Russian oligarch investment in recent years, the government has been criticized for not moving quickly enough to target assets held there. Roman Abramovich, one of the world’s most famous oligarchs for his ownership of the Chelsea football club, is already attempting to get out of the limelight and away from sanctions. On Wednesday he announced he was selling the club after almost two decades as owner; he also appears to be hastily selling some of his exclusive London properties.

Taiwan is left with an American president whose incompetence jeopardizes the free society they’ve fought so hard to achieve.

As Russia continues its military onslaught against Ukraine, the impending threat of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan has also become a hot topic among foreign policy analysts in legacy media. For years, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has made clear its intention to capture the island nation, with incursions into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ) and threats of military force becoming more frequent in recent years. With the outbreak of war in Ukraine, however, there is growing concern that such long-held desires by China to forcefully annex Taiwan could materialize sooner than originally anticipated. Since the beginning of Russia’s blitzkrieg against Ukraine, the CCP has wasted no time in ramping up its propaganda efforts over its fictitious territorial claims to Taiwan. During a press conference last week, Beijing’s foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying publicly declared that “Taiwan is not Ukraine” when discussing comparisons between the two geopolitical flashpoints, while adding that Taiwan “has always been an inalienable part of China” and that such a claim “is an indisputable legal and historical fact.” China’s state-run media has also joined in the fray, with Global Times commentator Hu Xijin saying on Thursday that Taiwan should “get used to” People’s Liberation Army (PLA) aircraft entering their airspace, while also threatening that there “may be more PLA aircraft fly there [Friday].” The tweet came in reply to a Thursday report from Taiwan’s defense ministry that documented nine PLA aircraft entering the southwestern region of the country’s ADIZ. In response to a potential uptick in military aggression from China, Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen has taken precautionary measures to maximize her nation’s regional and national security efforts. During a meeting with a working group tasked with overseeing the Ukraine crisis by her National Security Council last week, Tsai reportedly emphasized that all military and defense forces on the island “must raise their surveillance and early warning of military developments around the Taiwan Strait.” “But in the face of foreign forces intending to manipulate the situation in Ukraine and affect the morale of Taiwanese society, all government units must strengthen the prevention of cognitive warfare launched by foreign forces and local collaborators,” she said. Joe Biden’s Weakness Invites Aggression Whether it’s the invasion of Ukraine or the prospect of military action against Taiwan, the ability of rogue actors like Russia and China to advance their geopolitical goals without fear of significant consequence can be traced back to the weakness of one man: U.S. President Joe Biden. Throughout his short tenure as president, Biden has overwhelmingly failed to institute a foreign policy that instills fear and uncertainty in antagonistic nations on the international stage, thus leading to a much more unstable global political climate. As noted by Federalist senior editor John Daniel Davidson for instance, the current invasion of Ukraine can be directly attributed to the feckless approach to Russian aggression perpetuated by Biden and his administration. “[T]he United States needed to have a firm, steady hand in its dealings with Moscow,” writes Davidson. “In this, Biden failed miserably, coming into office with a lot of bluster about how he was going to take a firm line on Putin, that he alone knew how to deal with Moscow … The time to put pressure on Putin and declare that an invasion of Ukraine would be a ‘red line,’ has passed. Now, Biden is reduced to haggling publicly with our European allies over sanctions that will certainly be watered down given Europe’s energy dependence on Russia.” Coupled with his disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan and willingness to leave his own country’s borders wide open to potential foreign hostiles, Biden’s weakness telegraphs to the world that America isn’t led by a serious commander-in-chief who’s willing to enforce red lines when needed. For countries like China, which seeks to dethrone the United States as a regional and global hegemon, Biden’s four years in office are a political gift that permits them to fast-track and achieve objectives that were unattainable under the Trump administration. Taiwan Deserves Better U.S. Leadership For the people of Taiwan, the looming prospect of a Chinese invasion now threatens to destroy all that they’ve built over their nation’s history. What was once an island under strictly enforced martial law in 1949 has now become a fully-fledged democratic, capitalist society where the concepts of individualism and personal liberty are widely cherished. With Biden sitting in the White House, however, such remarkable accomplishments are now at risk more than ever. As Biden continues to fumble the ball on major foreign policy ventures and exemplify weak U.S. leadership to the world, Xi Jinping and the CCP are likely to become even more emboldened to escalate their military activities in the Taiwan Strait and accelerate plans for forced annexation of Taiwan. n

With its sovereignty and safety under increasing threat, the very least U.S. leadership could do for Taiwan is to emulate strength and dominance in the face of Chinese aggression. Instead, Taiwan is left with an American president whose incompetence jeopardizes the free society they’ve fought so hard to achieve. Shawn Fleetwood is an intern at The Federalist and a student at the University of Mary Washington, where he plans to major in Political Science and minor in Journalism. He also serves as a state content writer for Convention of States Action. Follow him on Twitter @ShawnFleetwood

The weakness and incompetence of the Biden administration was irresistible to a tyrant like Vladimir Putin. And it may be to more tyrants, like Xi Jinping.

There is a plethora of misinformation in corporate media on the potential World War III. Shocking, I know. Let’s clear a few things up: Vladimir Putin hasn’t lost. The West did not pull together under Joe Biden’s “leadership.” But Ukraine has most definitely won the propaganda war. The weakness and incompetence of the Biden administration was irresistible to a tyrant like Putin. That left Ukraine pretty much on its own as the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and United States were essentially irrelevant. The Ukrainian forces have exceeded expectations, but thus far Putin has not gone full Golden Horde on them. There is also a lot of smoke and mirrors in play, and as noted information warfare strategists Chuck D and Flavor Flav have advised, “Don’t believe the hype.” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is no longer a former comedian, he’s a World War III rock star. When pictures of him in full battle rattle out with the troops were published, apparently the United States offered to whisk him to safety. His response was famously, “I don’t need a ride, I need ammo.” Add that to the Snake Island defenders telling a Russian warship threatening them to “Go f-ck yourselves” right before the shells started raining down. Then throw in a squad of supermodels carrying Kalashnikovs and 80-year-old guys showing up to fight with a couple of sandwiches and a bad attitude. That is a tremendous narrative of the plucky patriots fighting for their families and freedom. Those stories are all true, or maybe not. Zelensky is confirmed to have made his request for ammo, but the Snake Island heroes were captured, not killed. The supermodels are at least real on Instagram, and the same with the old guy and his lunch. At some level, perception is reality, and Ukraine has done a brilliant job of getting its message out. Now they are getting support based on the combination of information warfare and actual battlefield action. They seem to have stopped the Russian blitzkrieg. Kyiv has not fallen and the Russian advance appears to have stalled. There are also reports of major Russian casualties and destruction of equipment. But reports are not reality, and it’s worth examining them. Many came from the notoriously reliable interwebz and have run the gamut from unverified to happened seven years ago to absolute B.S. Information warfare is important in the modern social media battlespace, but it means less than the truth on the ground, which is far from certain. A few pictures of Russian vehicles abandoned by the road can be a sign their logistics aren’t up to snuff. Or show that when 10,000-plus vehicles are rolling through enemy territory, some break down or get ahead of fuel convoys. Video of Spetsnaz looting food from a store can show their troops are starving. Or it’s a reminder that Spetsnaz are commandos who operate well ahead of the chow wagons in the rear. It is clear that Ukraine was not toppled in a weekend, but that does not mean it couldn’t still be or that was even the goal. It has been my belief all along that Putin never wanted to own and occupy Ukraine. Assuming he does topple the government, and I think it’s premature to say he couldn’t, then he will face a massive insurgency. He was around for Afghanistan, and I can’t see why he would take that on again. He does want ownership of the two Russian-speaking provinces on his border with Ukraine in the west and official recognition of Crimea. Making a larger assault gives him bargaining chips to ensure he can trade a promise to not destroy the infrastructure for land deeds and removal of sanctions. There is talk of peace talks. Also, as if to punctuate his previous threat, Putin put his “defensive” nuclear forces on alert. However, talk is cheap until a deal turns into tanks rolling back to Mother Russia or at least back to the newer additions. But we can’t ignore that for the first time in decades mass formations of tanks rolled in Europe and the leader of a major power threatened nuclear attack. The damage and danger to Ukraine are huge. The return of nuclear brinksmanship is the real loss for the whole world. The failure to simply roll into Kyiv as the Russians thought they would is a major blow to their military morale and Putin’s image as the strong man. While the wins for Ukraine are not a bad thing, a wannabe tough guy with wounded pride could be. Putin now has to salvage something he can call a win and at a minimum now he needs to have Russian vehicles rolling in the streets of Kyiv. Even if he doesn’t topple the regime, that visual may be enough to salve his ego. But that means the gloves are all the way off and civilians are in the crosshairs. There are already credible reports of cluster munitions in built-up areas. We also must consider that Vlad wants a legacy worthy of his exalted image of himself as a major force in Russian history. Until now, he has done nothing worthy of that. Losing the Ukraine scrap is not an option for him. If it starts looking really bad, his inner megalomaniac may dominate. Making Russia the first country other than the United States to use a nuke in battle would certainly cement his spot in world history. You would have to go back to the fall of the Soviet Union for the last time there was a real concern that a rogue faction would grab nukes and use them. But this is the rightful(ish) leader threatening to use them against us or anyone else who intervenes. You can’t un-ring that bell. Neither the United State nor NATO was a serious threat to Putin’s plans, which is a problem. He can do a lot of damage without ever directly encroaching on a NATO country and triggering, theoretically, a response. And while Germany claiming they will spend 100 million euros on their military is a welcome sign, what if they had done so when President Trump pressured them to? Maybe a little peace through strength would have been an actual deterrent. Now we confront the worst-case scenario of a Dragon/Bear alliance between Russia and China. Xi and Putin met during the Olympics and Xi likely told Vlad. “Just hold off until after the closing ceremonies.” Then they made an energy deal to ensure Vlad had an outlet to replace Nordstream2. Love him or not, Donald Trump kept Putin, Xi, and even Kim Jong Un from causing major problems. He kept the Russians engaged and far from partnering up with the Communist Chinese. He put all of them on their back feet wondering kind of a deal might be possible but also worried what he might do if they stepped over the line. Biden can barely be certain what decade this is, let alone present a worthy adversary for these world-class tyrants. They are stealing Joe’s (and the world’s) lunch money while he wonders if today is butterscotch or chocolate pudding. This was mildly amusing during the campaign, but has gotten progressively more horrifying until now we approach a nuclear showdown. Sadly, the vision of Biden as Slim Pickens riding the nuke like a cowboy in Dr. Strangelove seems an actual possibility. What happens when Xi decides Taiwan and all its chip factories are perfectly ripe for the picking with no one even marginally competent to be found in the U.S. leadership? One year and one month have led us to the point where World War III is not a joke; it may have already started. That hype you can believe and the only thing we can do is “Fight the Power.” I don’t mean get ourselves in a war or even a skirmish at this point. We have to fight the woke left’s fundamental transformation of the United States into a toothless, doddering mirror image of Biden they can operate like a puppet. While the left is having a momentary spasm of bellicose fantasy, it is not real and will quickly pass. Their nature is to be subservient, and that is what they want America to be. We must fight against their view of America as the soy-latte sipping, artisanal arugula-nibbling, one nation among many. That means peace through strength, which just happens to be the best way to avoid getting drawn into anybody’s wars. But first we need to hope Biden doesn’t somehow throw more gas on this potential nuclear barbecue. Elections have consequences. Jim Hanson is president of Security Studies Group and served in U.S. Army Special Forces.