HMMMMMM!

 

Below by David Morris Iran, China, and Russia have all warned us that they would retaliate against the US if we take any action agains Assad in Syria. If Russia or China decide that they want to retaliate against us, they have a world of options...the easiest of which would be to facilitate the crash of the dollar to get even with the US for selling them Treasuries and paying them back with dollars that are worth less money than what they paid in the first place. Iran, though, is the wildcard of the bunch. Enough so that Israelis are buying gas masks in bulk, even though they've been in the crosshairs of chemical attacks for at least the last generation. If Iran attacks us, it's not like we'll stop trading with them like we would with Russia and China. Since we don't have many positive relations with Iran that we can sever, they don't have the disincentives that Russia and China currently do. So what could Iran do...or more accurately, what do we KNOW Iran can do and what have they said they would do? Well, they have been exporting fighters and expertise to Muslim conflicts for decades. Their unconventional/asymetrical warfare tactics are honed and well practiced, as are their instructional methods. And we know that their elite Quds forces have been pre-positioned in the US for quite some time. Conventional thought was that they were pre-positioned here so that Iran could quickly and easily retaliate in the event that we attacked their nuclear facilities or supported Israel in an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities. It's not too big of a stretch to think that now, as Iran is warning us not to interfere in Syria, that these pre-positioned assets would be a big part of any retaliation against the US. So, again...let's not look at what they COULD do...let's look at what they've done in other conflicts and what they've said they'd do: 1. Wildfire attacks. The Japanese was unsuccessful in their firebombing attacks on US forests during WWII, but their strategy provided a roadmap for future generations. 2. Infrastructure failure from wildfires. Wildfires in areas where there are power lines can have a double effect of knocking out the electrical grid locally or regionally. As power lines heat up, they get more resistance and makes them stretch. If the lines stretch too much, they short out. As the resistance increases, not enough power gets to the end of the lines. Ash, dirt, and other sediment in the water can reduce the quantity and quality of water getting downstream for drinking and agriculture. 3. Bombings. Especially bombings combined with radio jamming and denial of service attacks on emergency call centers and first responders by robo-dialers to prevent effective responses. 4. Attacks on schools. (Think "Beslan Masaccre") Cause enough fear and schools close and parents pull their kids out of schools. Until parents figure out childcare, national GDP drops. If schools close, do teachers still get paid? If they don't get paid, their spending is going to drop and investments in the stock market by teacher retirement funds dry up. 5. Attacks on markets/currency. This could be simple kinetic attacks against exchanges, denial of service attacks against web sites or call centers, or it could be a semi-sophisticated bear raid like what triggered the 2008 market crash. It could also be a denial of service attack or full-on hacking attack on credit card networks. 6. Random acts of violence in gun free zones. This has been happening around the globe for decades. Simply declaw and defang the sheepdog and the wolves can eat as many sheep as they want. 7. Oil. Our unwillingness to become energy independent gives Iran a lot of leverage against us. Roughly 20% of the world's oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz and Iran has spent the last several years figuring out tactics to control it...even against a US Naval carrier group. Besides lining the shores and islands with anti-ship missiles, they have developed a "swarming" attack technique with small, fast, manuverable attack boats. In EVERY non-classified US naval exercise, these swarming attacks eventually defeat our ships. 8. Freighter based Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) attacks. Iran has already tested ship based launching systems for EMP-specific warhead delivery. Russian arms dealers even have rocket launchers built to look like a shipping container. Bring one of these sereptuitously across the Atlantic, launch it in international waters, and we've got a serious problem.