Posted: 02 Nov 2013 10:51 PM PDT Borderland Beat
Chivis Note: Tijuano is unable to use the computer at this time, but he wrote an article after the killing of Pancho Arellano, exploring a number of theories , I am posting it for him. (Get better soon Tijuano!)
by "Tijuano"
I've been thinking about this since Saturday, Who would dare kill Francisco Rafael Arellano Felix? The first thing that comes to most people´s minds is Sinaloa, BUT, why? Francisco Rafael wasn't an active member of CAF anymore (if he EVER was is up to debate), he wasn't part of the war between Juarez/Sinaloa and CAF (He was in Jail most of the time), besides, if they wanted him death, it would have been just easier for them to kill him when he was extradited to Cd. Juarez.
So, again, who would dare to kill an Arellano Felix? Obviously someone who thinks he/she can do it without any retaliation.
He surely wasn't expecting to be killed, much less by a "clown" on his grandson´s birthday party.
There are some theories around the web right now regarding the identity of the killers, some are more believable than others, I figured I´ll post them and try to explain the why behind them.
1.- Sinaloa: At first it isn't hard to imagine Sinaloa behind Francisco´s murder, they have the connections, they have the "right people to do the job", the resources and the firepower to fight the resulting war, nobody would argue about that, the question here is why?
Some claim it was a result of the "New Tijuana Cartel" banners, killing Francisco would be a message to those Sinaloa lieutenants who might be thinking about leaving CDS (going back to CAF, or going independent). Other´s claim it was a message to "El Ingeniero", the murder of his uncle, on his grandson´s birthday would be a warning letting him know they can reach his closest family members. In any case, if it was Sinaloa, they went after the easiest target.
2.- Narciso Agundez Montaño, former PRD Governor for BCS: To many this could be a surprise, myself included, but many argue the execution of Francisco Rafael was a response to the murder of Antonio Alcantar, former spokesman for Agundez and a close friend of him.
Alcantar was gunned down on October 9 when he was arriving to his home in the exclusive neighborhood FIDEPAZ (he was Teo´s neighbor), Alcantar´s brother, Leobardo was shot at the same time in a different neighborhood, Leobardo survived the attack but remains in critical condition.  A former BCS Police deputy director was arrested in TIJUANA for this crime, Joel Martinez Rosas (at left) aka "El Coreano"(The Korean) was fired after a group of parents asked then President Felipe Calderon to investigate Martinez and his supposed protection to drug dealers in South La Paz.
Both Alcantar brothers were part of Narciso Agundez close circle, Narciso was accused by Francisco Javier Arellano Felix(not to be confused with Francisco Rafael, his older brother) of receiving money from him during his Governor campaign.
Narciso´s brother is the mayor of Los Cabos, were Francisco Rafael was executed, in fact, Antonio Agundez aka "El Tony" was at the party and left just minutes before Rafael´s execution, this by itself raises some questions, first of all, what was he doing there? ANY mayor in Mexico has bodyguards, if he left the party just minutes before the crime, why did it take the police MORE than an hour to arrive at the scene? why didn't Antonio´s bodyguards (Los Cabos police) return to the scene?.
While the Agundez family remains powerful in BCS, they don´t seem to have the resources to go to war with CAF, not by themselves. So, IF they did it, who is behind them? Some say they sold the Los Cabos plaza to another cartel, maybe BLO or Zetas(doubt it).
3.- The "New Tijuana Cartel": Another theory, is that the so called New Tijuana Cartel group is behind this, sending a message to the Arellano Felix Family telling them they are no longer in power, while possible, this is very unlikely, the banner announcing the "New Tijuana Cartel" hasn't even been proved to be real, the banner was hanged there, but the existence of a new cartel remains a mystery. Those signing the banner are believed to be at war between them, so an alliance seems rather unlikely.
4.- Another Cartel trying to heat up Tijuana: This one actually has some logic to me, like I mentioned before, I don´t see why Sinaloa would do something like this. They just don´t need it.
It is not a secret that Sinaloa and CAF have some kind of pact or agreement, in Tijuana many know that CAF cell leaders have done businesses with Sinaloa lieutenants for some time now, the peace between the two cartels allows them to bring profits instead of the losses the war brings.  While tense, this peace has remained for some years now, in fact, problems like Juan Sillas arrest were quickly fixed between both cartels (Sinaloa gave 20 tons of weed and a Tunnel to CAF). This pact has allowed Sinaloa to reap millions in profits thus financing their war with BLO, Juarez and Z´s. If this pact is broken, and another war front is opened for CDS, their problems in other states would definitely increase.
People mention the killers were from Sinaloa, but this doesn't mean they were from CDS, Chapito Isidro has had a presence in Baja California Sur for some time now, the so called "Cartel de La Oficina" (The Office Cartel) has been in Baja Sur for some time, they even tried to get rid of all the distributors in La Paz, Los Cabos and surrounding towns. Both CDS and CAF had losses during that period. At the end, CAF kept control of most of the distributors and their cells.
So, another cartel trying to "heat up" Tijuana is quite possible, BLO has the resources in BCS, Zetas are allied with them and they have something to win.
5.- Rafael Caro Quintero: This one seems too farfetched to me, IMHO Caro Quintero (above left) just wants to live his final years in peace. However there´s a debt the Arellano´s had with him, at least some believe so. In 1999, Jose Contreras Subias was gunned down when he was arriving at his home in Tijuana, a pair of sicarios fired at him when he was trying to open his garage door, his mother, who was in the passenger seat was unharmed in the attack.
Contreras Subias was Rafael Caro Quintero´s number 2, he was the one in charge of the Tijuana Plaza in the mid-80´s, When Caro Quintero became the public enemy number one, Contreras Subias was arrested along many of Caro´s lieutenants. When Contreras left prison, he was a changed man, he became a religious man and supposedly spoke with several of his former colleagues trying to convince them to abandon the drug business, according to Blancornelas, the Arellanos thought Contreras was trying to regain his control of Tijuana and killed him. Caro Quintero never had his payback for this crime.
6.- CIA, DEA, Reptiloids: I mention this 3 in the same group since, at least to me, they seem equally absurd, the DEA left him free, the CIA had nothing to do with him, and Reptiloids, well, I´m sure you get the point.
As you can see, I´m just guessing here and trying to find any logic on the several theories. I´ll love to read your thoughts on this.
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